PitchMath
2. Bundesliga · 2026

Holstein Kiel vs SG Dynamo Dresden · 2. Bundesliga

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.171.33
Expected goals
1.531.21
Shots
14.812.7
Possession
54.8%55%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. The next-strongest reading is weaker: SG Dynamo Dresden's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

SG Dynamo Dresden's recent record differs from the season

weak

SG Dynamo Dresden's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.67 corners/matchCornersHolstein Kiel · SG Dynamo Dresden6.67 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricHolstein KielSG Dynamo DresdenBaseline
Corners6.67 corners/match6.67 corners/match5.67 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Holstein Kiel favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · SG Dynamo Dresden in 5 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Holstein Kiel6 matchesSG Dynamo Dresden6 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲ 1.33 goals/match
1.67 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/62.33 goals/match
1.53 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/61.21 xG/match
14.8 shots/match ▲Shots6/612.7 shots/match
3.83 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲ 4.33 shots/match
54.8%Possession6/6● 55%
6.67 corners/matchCorners6/66.67 corners/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls6/610.5 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Holstein Kiel
1Draws
1SG Dynamo Dresden
SG Dynamo Dresden — Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga2–1
Holstein Kiel — SG Dynamo Dresden · 2. Bundesliga2–1
SG Dynamo Dresden — Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga0–0
Holstein Kiel — SG Dynamo Dresden · 2. Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness36 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in 2. Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHolstein KielSG Dynamo Dresden
Competition2. Bundesliga
Head-to-headHolstein Kiel — SG Dynamo Dresden
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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