PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2026

SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
2.83.2
Expected goals
2.083.45
Shots
1923.4
Possession
53.3%70.4%

30-second read

What the record shows

The season records do not separate these clubs, so the strongest stored context is their shared history: 5 meetings, 0 to SC Freiburg, 1 drawn, 4 to FC Bayern München. From this fixture's own record: SC Freiburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Past meetings are history, not a forecast.

SC Freiburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

SC Freiburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

19 shots/match ▲ShotsSC Freiburg · FC Bayern München23.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSC FreiburgFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots19 shots/match23.4 shots/match15.8 shots/match
Shots against9.5 shots/match7 shots/match16.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.3%PossessionSC Freiburg · FC Bayern München● 70.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSC FreiburgFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Possession53.3%70.4%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SC Freiburg favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 1 · 11 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SC Freiburg5 matchesFC Bayern München5 matches
2.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲ 3.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.8 goals/match
2.08 xG/matchExpected goals4/5▲ 3.45 xG/match
19 shots/matchShots4/5▲ 23.4 shots/match
6.5 shots/matchShots on target4/5▲ 9 shots/match
53.3%Possession4/5● 70.4%
5.25 corners/matchCorners4/5● 9.4 corners/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls4/59.6 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0SC Freiburg
1Draws
4FC Bayern München
SC Freiburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga2–3
FC Bayern München — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga6–2
SC Freiburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–2
FC Bayern München — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga2–0
SC Freiburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness15 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSC FreiburgFC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesliga
Head-to-headSC Freiburg — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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