PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Sheffield United vs Derby County · Championship

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.130.88
Expected goals
0.990.91
Shots
8.2512.3
Possession
40%49.4%

30-second read

What the record shows

The season records do not separate these clubs, so the strongest stored context is their shared history: 5 meetings, 3 to Sheffield United, 0 drawn, 2 to Derby County. From this fixture's own record: derby County have recorded the higher season possession share. Past meetings are history, not a forecast.

Sheffield United's recent record differs from the season

weak

Sheffield United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Derby County have recorded the higher season possession share.

40%PossessionSheffield United · Derby County● 49.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSheffield UnitedDerby CountyBaseline
Possession40%49.4%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Sheffield United favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Derby County in 6 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Sheffield United8 matchesDerby County8 matches
1.13 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match
1.38 goals/match ▲Goals allowed8/81.75 goals/match
0.99 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/80.91 xG/match
8.25 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 12.3 shots/match
3.13 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 3.63 shots/match
40%Possession8/8● 49.4%
2.88 corners/matchCorners8/8● 6.38 corners/match
12 fouls/matchFouls8/813.3 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Sheffield United
0Draws
2Derby County
Derby County — Sheffield United · Championship1–2
Sheffield United — Derby County · Championship1–3
Derby County — Sheffield United · Championship0–1
Sheffield United — Derby County · Championship1–0
Derby County — Sheffield United · Championship2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness35 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSheffield UnitedDerby County
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headSheffield United — Derby County
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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