Championship · 2026

Portsmouth vs Millwall · Championship

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.291.88
Expected goals
1.331.91
Shots
15.414.8
Possession
53.3%44.1%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: portsmouth have recorded the higher season possession share. The next-strongest reading is weaker: portsmouth's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Portsmouth's recent record differs from the season

weak

Portsmouth's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.29 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Portsmouth have a visible home split

weak

Portsmouth's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18 shots/match15.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Portsmouth show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Portsmouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.4 shots/match ▲ShotsPortsmouth · Millwall14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPortsmouthMillwallBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match14.8 shots/match13.2 shots/match
Shots against11.4 shots/match14.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Portsmouth favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Millwall in 6 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Portsmouth7 matchesMillwall8 matches
1.29 goals/matchGoals scored7/8▲ 1.88 goals/match
1.43 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/81.88 goals/match
1.33 xG/matchExpected goals7/8▲ 1.91 xG/match
15.4 shots/matchShots7/814.8 shots/match
4.43 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/84.13 shots/match
53.3% ●Possession7/844.1%
7 corners/match ●Corners7/84.38 corners/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls7/812.9 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Portsmouth
0Draws
2Millwall
Millwall — Portsmouth · Championship1–3
Portsmouth — Millwall · Championship3–1
Millwall — Portsmouth · Championship2–1
Portsmouth — Millwall · Championship0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness35 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

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