PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Lincoln City vs Burnley · Championship

vsPre-match analysis

Burnley

DLDLD

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
0.881.13
Expected goals
1.341.14
Shots
12.413.4
Possession
35.6%49.8%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: burnley have recorded the higher season possession share. The next-strongest reading is weaker: lincoln City's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Lincoln City have a visible home split

weak

Lincoln City's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Burnley have recorded the higher season possession share.

35.6%PossessionLincoln City · Burnley● 49.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLincoln CityBurnleyBaseline
Possession35.6%49.8%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lincoln City favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Burnley in 7

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lincoln City8 matchesBurnley8 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 1.13 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed8/82.13 goals/match
1.34 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/81.14 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 13.4 shots/match
3.13 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 3.75 shots/match
35.6%Possession8/8● 49.8%
4.13 corners/matchCorners8/8● 4.88 corners/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls8/810.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness35 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLincoln CityBurnley
CompetitionChampionship
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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