PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Wolverhampton vs Watford · Championship

vsPre-match analysis

Watford

LLWLL

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
2.140.88
Expected goals
1.820.86
Shots
15.411.5
Possession
53.6%46%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: watford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: wolverhampton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Watford's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Watford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.88 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Wolverhampton show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Wolverhampton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.4 shots/match ▲ShotsWolverhampton · Watford11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricWolverhamptonWatfordBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match11.5 shots/match13.2 shots/match
Shots against10.6 shots/match15.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Wolverhampton favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Watford in 1 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Wolverhampton7 matchesWatford8 matches
2.14 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/80.88 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/8▲ 1.25 goals/match
1.82 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/80.86 xG/match
15.4 shots/match ▲Shots7/811.5 shots/match
4.57 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/83.5 shots/match
53.6% ●Possession7/846%
6.29 corners/match ●Corners7/83.63 corners/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls7/811.6 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Wolverhampton
0Draws
0Watford
Wolverhampton — Watford · Premier League4–0
Watford — Wolverhampton · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness36 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsWolverhamptonWatford
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headWolverhampton — Watford
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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