PitchMath
Saudi Pro League · 2026

Al-Nassr vs Neom SC · Saudi Pro League

vsPre-match analysis

Neom SC

LLWWW

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
2.291.86
Expected goals
1.651.27
Shots
16.313.7
Possession
56.9%52.6%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: neom SC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Neom SC have a visible away split

weak

Neom SC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match13.7 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Al-Nassr's recent record differs from the season

weak

Al-Nassr's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.29 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.29 goals/match1.07 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Al-Nassr favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Neom SC in 2 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Al-Nassr7 matchesNeom SC7 matches
2.29 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/71.86 goals/match
1 goal/matchGoals allowed7/7▲ 0.86 goals/match
1.65 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.27 xG/match
16.3 shots/match ▲Shots7/713.7 shots/match
6.29 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/74.43 shots/match
56.9% ●Possession7/752.6%
8.29 corners/match ●Corners7/74.57 corners/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls7/711.3 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Al-Nassr
0Draws
0Neom SC
Al-Nassr — Neom SC · Saudi Pro League1–0
Neom SC — Al-Nassr · Saudi Pro League1–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness33 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 15 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Saudi Pro League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAl-NassrNeom SC
CompetitionSaudi Pro League
Head-to-headAl-Nassr — Neom SC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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