Botafogo
Serie A · 2026Botafogo 3–2 Grêmio · Serie A
This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.
Match at a glance
Botafogo won 3–2.
- Shots
- 10–13
- Shots on target
- 7–3
- Expected goals
- 0.89–0.57
- Possession
- 36%–64%
Full time
What the match recorded
Botafogo beat Grêmio 3–2. Recorded in this match (Botafogo – Grêmio): shots 10–13, shots on target 7–3, expected goals 0.89–0.57, possession 36%–64%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
Pre-match record
What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.
Botafogo's recent record differs from the season
moderateBotafogo's last-five shots average is above their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 18.4 shots/match | 14.5 shots/match | 13.8 shots/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
Recent scheduling adds useful context
weakA compressed recent schedule is recorded for Botafogo.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.
Window: previous 14 days
| Metric | Botafogo | Grêmio | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest days | 3.96 days | 4.15 days | — |
| Matches last 14 days | 2 matches | 2 matches | — |
Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.
Grêmio have a visible away split
moderateGrêmio's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.
Window: away
| Metric | Away only | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 9.21 shots/match | 11.4 shots/match | 13.8 shots/match |
Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.
This match
Match statistics
History
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between these teams.
Last 5 meetings
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Botafogo favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Grêmio in 3 · 3 too close
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 2 matches
Botafogo / Grêmio
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
More football
Related matches
Mirassol
Vasco da Gama
Bahia
Remo
Atlético Mineiro
ChapecoenseTeam rankings in Serie A
Make a graphic from this match
Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.