PitchMath
Süper Lig · 2026

Galatasaray 3–1 Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig

3–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Galatasaray won 3–1.

Shots
259
Shots on target
113
Expected goals
2.40.51
Possession
63%37%

Full time

What the match recorded

Galatasaray beat Kasımpaşa 3–1. Recorded in this match (Galatasaray – Kasımpaşa): shots 25–9, shots on target 11–3, expected goals 2.4–0.51, possession 63%–37%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Galatasaray show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Galatasaray's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

23 shots/match ▲ShotsGalatasaray · Kasımpaşa11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricGalatasarayKasımpaşaBaseline
Shots23 shots/match11.3 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against9.86 shots/match15.1 shots/match14.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Galatasaray have a visible home split

weak

Galatasaray's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

31.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season23 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots31.3 shots/match23 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Galatasaray have recorded the higher season possession share.

59% ●PossessionGalatasaray · Kasımpaşa41%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricGalatasarayKasımpaşaBaseline
Possession59%41%48.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots25 shots9 shotsGalatasaray 25 shots, Kasımpaşa 9 shots
  • Shots on target11 shots3 shotsGalatasaray 11 shots, Kasımpaşa 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.4 xG0.51 xGGalatasaray 2.4 xG, Kasımpaşa 0.51 xG
  • Possession63%37%Galatasaray 63%, Kasımpaşa 37%
  • Corners8 corners1 cornerGalatasaray 8 corners, Kasımpaşa 1 corner
  • Fouls12 fouls15 foulsGalatasaray 12 fouls, Kasımpaşa 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards4 cardsGalatasaray 2 cards, Kasımpaşa 4 cards
  • Passes435 passes253 passesGalatasaray 435 passes, Kasımpaşa 253 passes
  • Pass accuracy84.4%73.1%Galatasaray 84.4%, Kasımpaşa 73.1%
  • Shots inside box19 shots3 shotsGalatasaray 19 shots, Kasımpaşa 3 shots
  • Blocked shots8 blocks2 blocksGalatasaray 8 blocks, Kasımpaşa 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves8 savesGalatasaray 2 saves, Kasımpaşa 8 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides5 offsidesGalatasaray 0 offsides, Kasımpaşa 5 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 3′Rafael LeãoYellow card · Galatasaray
  2. 25′Elson MendesYellow card · Kasımpaşa
  3. 28′Kerem DemirbayYellow card · Kasımpaşa
  4. 40′Davinson SánchezYellow card · Galatasaray
  5. 45′Abdülkerim BardakcıGoal · Galatasaray
  6. Half-time
  7. 51′Ali Yavuz KolYellow card · Kasımpaşa
  8. 56′Andri Fannar BaldurssonYellow card · Kasımpaşa
  9. 65′Lucas TorreiraRed card · Galatasaray
  10. 68′Jesurun Rak-SakyiGoal · Kasımpaşa
  11. 90′Barış Alper YılmazGoal · Galatasaray
  12. 90′Mario LeminaGoal · Galatasaray
  13. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 57′Kasımpaşa · 1 player changeThiemoko Diarra
  • 58′Kasımpaşa · 1 player changeJesurun Rak-Sakyi
  • 67′Galatasaray · 2 player changesMario Lemina · Eren Elmalı
  • 70′Kasımpaşa · 1 player changeHaris Hajradinović
  • 77′Galatasaray · 2 player changesVictor Osimhen · Leroy Sané
  • 78′Kasımpaşa · 1 player changeJakob Jessen
  • 88′Galatasaray · 1 player changeRenato Nhaga

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Galatasaray
2Draws
1Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa — Galatasaray · Süper Lig1–0
Galatasaray — Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig3–0
Kasımpaşa — Galatasaray · Süper Lig3–3
Galatasaray — Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig3–3
Kasımpaşa — Galatasaray · Süper Lig3–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Galatasaray favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Kasımpaşa in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Galatasaray7 matchesKasımpaşa7 matches
2.29 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/71.14 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲ 1.14 goals/match
2.29 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/70.98 xG/match
23 shots/match ▲Shots7/711.3 shots/match
8.14 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/73.29 shots/match
59% ●Possession7/741%
7.14 corners/match ●Corners7/73.43 corners/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls7/714.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Süper Lig

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsGalatasarayKasımpaşa
CompetitionSüper Lig
Head-to-headGalatasaray — Kasımpaşa
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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