PitchMath
La Liga · 2026

Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club · La Liga

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.571.17
Expected goals
1.271.6
Shots
13.415.7
Possession
48.7%52.5%

30-second read

What the record shows

The season records do not separate these clubs, so the strongest stored context is their shared history: 5 meetings, 0 to Rayo Vallecano, 1 drawn, 4 to Athletic Club. From this fixture's own record: athletic Club's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Past meetings are history, not a forecast.

Athletic Club show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Athletic Club's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.4 shots/match ▲ShotsRayo Vallecano · Athletic Club15.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoAthletic ClubBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match15.7 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against16.4 shots/match9.5 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

weak

Rayo Vallecano's last-five shots average is above their season average.

16 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots16 shots/match13.4 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.29 corners/matchCornersRayo Vallecano · Athletic Club● 6.17 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoAthletic ClubBaseline
Corners5.29 corners/match6.17 corners/match4.57 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Rayo Vallecano favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Athletic Club in 9 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Rayo Vallecano7 matchesAthletic Club6 matches
1.57 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/61.17 goals/match
2.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/6▲ 1 goal/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals7/6▲ 1.6 xG/match
13.4 shots/matchShots7/6▲ 15.7 shots/match
4.57 shots/matchShots on target7/64.67 shots/match
48.7%Possession7/6● 52.5%
5.29 corners/matchCorners7/6● 6.17 corners/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls7/610.8 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Rayo Vallecano
1Draws
4Athletic Club
Rayo Vallecano — Athletic Club · La Liga1–1
Athletic Club — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1–0
Athletic Club — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga3–1
Rayo Vallecano — Athletic Club · La Liga1–2
Rayo Vallecano — Athletic Club · La Liga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Rayo Vallecano4-3-3
  1. Emil AuderoG
  2. Andrei RațiuD
  3. Mujaid SadickD
  4. Adrià PedrosaD
  5. Florian LejeuneD
  6. Pathé Ismaël CissM
  7. Isi PalazónM
  8. Unai LópezM
  9. Sergio CamelloF
  10. Álvaro GarcíaF
  11. Jorge de FrutosF
Athletic Club4-2-3-1
  1. Unai SimónG
  2. Aitor ParedesD
  3. Yeray ÁlvarezD
  4. Jesús AresoD
  5. Yuri BerchicheD
  6. Iñigo Ruiz de GalarretaM
  7. Beñat GerenabarrenaM
  8. Peio CanalesM
  9. Álex BerenguerF
  10. Iñaki WilliamsF
  11. Robert NavarroF

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness21 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRayo VallecanoAthletic Club
CompetitionLa Liga
Head-to-headRayo Vallecano — Athletic Club
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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