PitchMath
La Liga · 2026

Real Madrid 1–0 Villarreal · La Liga

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Real Madrid won 1–0.

Shots
1115
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
0.950.62
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Real Madrid beat Villarreal 1–0. Recorded in this match (Real Madrid – Villarreal): shots 11–15, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 0.95–0.62, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.13 corners/match ●CornersReal Madrid · Villarreal6.75 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridVillarrealBaseline
Corners7.13 corners/match6.75 corners/match4.57 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Real Madrid's recent record differs from the season

weak

Real Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.38 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.9 shots/match ▲ShotsReal Madrid · Villarreal15.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridVillarrealBaseline
Shots17.9 shots/match15.9 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against13 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots15 shotsReal Madrid 11 shots, Villarreal 15 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsReal Madrid 4 shots, Villarreal 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.95 xG0.62 xGReal Madrid 0.95 xG, Villarreal 0.62 xG
  • Possession46%54%Real Madrid 46%, Villarreal 54%
  • Corners9 corners3 cornersReal Madrid 9 corners, Villarreal 3 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls13 foulsReal Madrid 8 fouls, Villarreal 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards2 cardsReal Madrid 5 cards, Villarreal 2 cards
  • Passes406 passes477 passesReal Madrid 406 passes, Villarreal 477 passes
  • Pass accuracy83.3%88.7%Real Madrid 83.3%, Villarreal 88.7%
  • Shots inside box9 shots7 shotsReal Madrid 9 shots, Villarreal 7 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks4 blocksReal Madrid 3 blocks, Villarreal 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves3 savesReal Madrid 4 saves, Villarreal 3 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides1 offsideReal Madrid 3 offsides, Villarreal 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 10′Renato VeigaYellow card · Villarreal
  2. 19′Jude BellinghamYellow card · Real Madrid
  3. Half-time
  4. 63′Yan DiomandeGoal · Real Madrid
  5. 72′Vinícius JúniorRed card · Real Madrid
  6. 81′Ibrahima KonatéYellow card · Real Madrid
  7. 83′Antonio RüdigerYellow card · Real Madrid
  8. 84′Pau NavarroYellow card · Villarreal
  9. 87′Aurélien TchouaméniYellow card · Real Madrid
  10. 90′Kylian MbappéYellow card · Real Madrid
  11. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Real Madrid · 1 player changeMarc Cucurella
  • 52′Real Madrid · 1 player changeVinícius Júnior
  • 56′Villarreal · 2 player changesNathan-Dylan Saliba · Carlos Romero
  • 67′Villarreal · 2 player changesGeorges Mikautadze · Gerard Moreno
  • 77′Real Madrid · 1 player changeEduardo Camavinga
  • 86′Real Madrid · 1 player changeDenzel Dumfries
  • 86′Villarreal · 1 player changeNizar El Jmili

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Real Madrid4-2-3-1
  1. Thibaut CourtoisG
  2. Ibrahima KonatéD
  3. Álvaro CarrerasD
  4. Antonio RüdigerD
  5. Denzel DumfriesD
  6. Jude BellinghamM
  7. Aurélien TchouaméniM
  8. Bernardo SilvaM
  9. Vinícius JúniorF
  10. Kylian MbappéF
  11. Arda GülerF
Villarreal4-4-2
  1. Péter GulácsiG
  2. Pau NavarroD
  3. Renato VeigaD
  4. Santiago MouriñoD
  5. Sergi CardonaD
  6. Ilias AkhomachM
  7. Santi ComesañaM
  8. Pape GueyeM
  9. Ayoze PérezM
  10. Gerard MorenoF
  11. Alberto MoleiroF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Real Madrid
1Draws
0Villarreal
Villarreal — Real Madrid · La Liga0–2
Real Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga3–1
Villarreal — Real Madrid · La Liga1–2
Real Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga2–0
Villarreal — Real Madrid · La Liga4–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Real Madrid favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Villarreal in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Real Madrid8 matchesVillarreal8 matches
2.38 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/81.63 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed8/81.63 goals/match
2.39 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/82.08 xG/match
17.9 shots/match ▲Shots8/815.9 shots/match
7.13 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/86.25 shots/match
51.8%Possession8/8● 60.8%
7.13 corners/match ●Corners8/86.75 corners/match
8.38 fouls/matchFouls8/811 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsReal MadridVillarreal
CompetitionLa Liga
Head-to-headReal Madrid — Villarreal
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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