PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Middlesbrough 1–0 Wolverhampton · Championship

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Middlesbrough won 1–0.

Shots
1412
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
0.960.57
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Middlesbrough beat Wolverhampton 1–0. Recorded in this match (Middlesbrough – Wolverhampton): shots 14–12, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 0.96–0.57, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Wolverhampton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Wolverhampton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.88 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots12 shotsMiddlesbrough 14 shots, Wolverhampton 12 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsMiddlesbrough 6 shots, Wolverhampton 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.96 xG0.57 xGMiddlesbrough 0.96 xG, Wolverhampton 0.57 xG
  • Possession52%48%Middlesbrough 52%, Wolverhampton 48%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersMiddlesbrough 4 corners, Wolverhampton 6 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls12 foulsMiddlesbrough 11 fouls, Wolverhampton 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards3 cardsMiddlesbrough 3 cards, Wolverhampton 3 cards
  • Passes494 passes443 passesMiddlesbrough 494 passes, Wolverhampton 443 passes
  • Pass accuracy87.9%84.4%Middlesbrough 87.9%, Wolverhampton 84.4%
  • Shots inside box7 shots6 shotsMiddlesbrough 7 shots, Wolverhampton 6 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block1 blockMiddlesbrough 1 block, Wolverhampton 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves5 savesMiddlesbrough 2 saves, Wolverhampton 5 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides2 offsidesMiddlesbrough 3 offsides, Wolverhampton 2 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 11′Sebastian BerhalterYellow card · Middlesbrough
  2. 12′Nasser DjigaYellow card · Wolverhampton
  3. 40′Neto BorgesYellow card · Middlesbrough
  4. Half-time
  5. 53′Rafiki SaïdYellow card · Wolverhampton
  6. 57′Will LankshearGoal · Middlesbrough
  7. 66′Jean-Ricner BellegardeYellow card · Wolverhampton
  8. 90′Myles Peart-HarrisYellow card · Middlesbrough
  9. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 51′Wolverhampton · 1 player changeRafiki Saïd
  • 61′Wolverhampton · 3 player changesFer López · Jean-Ricner Bellegarde · Jordan James
  • 70′Middlesbrough · 2 player changesLuke Ayling · Myles Peart-Harris
  • 80′Middlesbrough · 1 player changeJeremy Sarmiento
  • 82′Wolverhampton · 1 player changeSean Neave
  • 87′Middlesbrough · 2 player changesMaximilian Arfsten · Kyle Joseph

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Middlesbrough3-4-2-1
  1. Radek VitekG
  2. Callum BrittainD
  3. Ashley PhillipsD
  4. Luke AylingD
  5. Maximilian ArfstenD
  6. Adilson MalandaD
  7. Sebastian BerhalterM
  8. Aidan MorrisM
  9. Will LankshearF
  10. Tommy ConwayF
  11. Amario Cozier-DuberryF
Wolverhampton4-2-3-1
  1. José SáG
  2. Kieran TrippierD
  3. Hugo BuenoD
  4. Toti GomesD
  5. Nasser DjigaD
  6. Marshall MunetsiM
  7. AndréM
  8. Jordan JamesM
  9. Adam ArmstrongF
  10. Rodrigo GomesF
  11. Mateus ManéF

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Middlesbrough favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Wolverhampton in 4 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Middlesbrough9 matchesWolverhampton8 matches
1.89 goals/matchGoals scored9/81.88 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed9/81.38 goals/match
1.82 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/81.66 xG/match
17 shots/match ▲Shots9/815 shots/match
5.22 shots/match ▲Shots on target9/84.25 shots/match
59.3% ●Possession9/852.9%
5.56 corners/matchCorners9/8● 6.25 corners/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls9/812.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMiddlesbroughWolverhampton
CompetitionChampionship
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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