PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Genoa 2–1 Fiorentina · Serie A

Genoa

LLLDL
2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Genoa won 2–1.

Shots
1013
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
1.380.97
Possession
37%63%

Full time

What the match recorded

Genoa beat Fiorentina 2–1. Recorded in this match (Genoa – Fiorentina): shots 10–13, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 1.38–0.97, possession 37%–63%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Genoa show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Genoa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.5 shots/match ▲ShotsGenoa · Fiorentina16.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricGenoaFiorentinaBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match16.2 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots against15.3 shots/match11.5 shots/match15.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Genoa's recent record differs from the season

weak

Genoa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.83 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fiorentina have a visible away split

weak

Fiorentina's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

13.7 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season16.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.7 shots/match16.2 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots13 shotsGenoa 10 shots, Fiorentina 13 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsGenoa 4 shots, Fiorentina 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.38 xG0.97 xGGenoa 1.38 xG, Fiorentina 0.97 xG
  • Possession37%63%Genoa 37%, Fiorentina 63%
  • Corners3 corners4 cornersGenoa 3 corners, Fiorentina 4 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls10 foulsGenoa 11 fouls, Fiorentina 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards3 cardsGenoa 5 cards, Fiorentina 3 cards
  • Passes274 passes476 passesGenoa 274 passes, Fiorentina 476 passes
  • Pass accuracy76.3%85.3%Genoa 76.3%, Fiorentina 85.3%
  • Shots inside box7 shots10 shotsGenoa 7 shots, Fiorentina 10 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block4 blocksGenoa 1 block, Fiorentina 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves2 savesGenoa 3 saves, Fiorentina 2 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides2 offsidesGenoa 2 offsides, Fiorentina 2 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 7′Milutin OsmajićGoal · Genoa
  2. 15′Junior MessiasGoal · Genoa
  3. 15′Luca RanieriYellow card · Fiorentina
  4. 21′Christ Inao OulaïYellow card · Fiorentina
  5. Half-time
  6. 60′VieryYellow card · Fiorentina
  7. 73′Johan VásquezGoal · Genoa
  8. 74′Hamed Junior TraorèYellow card · Genoa
  9. 84′Johan VásquezYellow card · Genoa
  10. 85′Samuel WiafeYellow card · Genoa
  11. 90′VitinhaYellow card · Genoa
  12. 90′Stefano SabelliYellow card · Genoa
  13. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Fiorentina · 2 player changesAlieu Njie · Viery
  • 57′Genoa · 2 player changesVitinha · Samuel Wiafe
  • 65′Fiorentina · 1 player changeMateo Pellegrino
  • 66′Genoa · 1 player changeAlessandro Marcandalli
  • 80′Fiorentina · 1 player changeDodô
  • 81′Fiorentina · 1 player changePedro Gonçalves
  • 81′Genoa · 1 player changeDavid Puczka
  • 82′Genoa · 1 player changeStefano Sabelli

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Genoa3-5-2
  1. Justin BijlowG
  2. Kingsley EhizibueD
  3. Leo ØstigårdD
  4. Johan VásquezD
  5. Alessandro MarcandalliD
  6. Mikael EllertssonD
  7. Tommaso BaldanziM
  8. Junior MessiasM
  9. Morten FrendrupM
  10. VitinhaF
  11. Milutin OsmajićF
Fiorentina4-3-3
  1. David De GeaG
  2. Radu DrăguşinD
  3. Luca RanieriD
  4. Álex JiménezD
  5. VieryD
  6. Cher NdourM
  7. Pedro GonçalvesM
  8. Nicolò FagioliM
  9. Alieu NjieF
  10. Franco MastantuonoF
  11. Mateo PellegrinoF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Genoa
3Draws
2Fiorentina
Fiorentina — Genoa · Serie A0–0
Genoa — Fiorentina · Serie A2–2
Fiorentina — Genoa · Serie A2–1
Genoa — Fiorentina · Serie A0–1
Fiorentina — Genoa · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Genoa favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 7 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Genoa6 matchesFiorentina6 matches
0.83 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲ 1.17 goals/match
1.83 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/62.33 goals/match
0.98 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 1.5 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShots6/6▲ 16.2 shots/match
3.17 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲ 5.17 shots/match
46.2%Possession6/6● 46.7%
4.67 corners/match ●Corners6/64.33 corners/match
10 fouls/matchFouls6/610.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsGenoaFiorentina
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headGenoa — Fiorentina
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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