PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2026

FC Arouca 1–0 CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

FC Arouca won 1–0.

Shots
711
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
0.741.45
Possession
37%63%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Arouca beat CF Estrela Amadora 1–0. Recorded in this match (FC Arouca – CF Estrela Amadora): shots 7–11, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 0.74–1.45, possession 37%–63%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

CF Estrela Amadora's recent record differs from the season

weak

CF Estrela Amadora's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.75 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Arouca have a visible home split

weak

FC Arouca's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12 shots/match10.4 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

FC Arouca show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

FC Arouca's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.4 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Arouca · CF Estrela Amadora13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC AroucaCF Estrela AmadoraBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match13 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against14.4 shots/match11 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots11 shotsFC Arouca 7 shots, CF Estrela Amadora 11 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsFC Arouca 3 shots, CF Estrela Amadora 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.74 xG1.45 xGFC Arouca 0.74 xG, CF Estrela Amadora 1.45 xG
  • Possession37%63%FC Arouca 37%, CF Estrela Amadora 63%
  • Corners5 corners6 cornersFC Arouca 5 corners, CF Estrela Amadora 6 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls7 foulsFC Arouca 10 fouls, CF Estrela Amadora 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards2 cardsFC Arouca 5 cards, CF Estrela Amadora 2 cards
  • Passes344 passes579 passesFC Arouca 344 passes, CF Estrela Amadora 579 passes
  • Pass accuracy76.7%87.2%FC Arouca 76.7%, CF Estrela Amadora 87.2%
  • Shots inside box5 shots6 shotsFC Arouca 5 shots, CF Estrela Amadora 6 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks2 blocksFC Arouca 2 blocks, CF Estrela Amadora 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves2 savesFC Arouca 2 saves, CF Estrela Amadora 2 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides3 offsidesFC Arouca 2 offsides, CF Estrela Amadora 3 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 5′Ivan BarberoGoal · FC Arouca
  2. 45′Ianis StoicaPenalty missed · CF Estrela Amadora
  3. 45′Pablo GozálbezYellow card · FC Arouca
  4. 45′Abraham MarcusYellow card · CF Estrela Amadora
  5. 45′Ivan BarberoYellow card · FC Arouca
  6. Half-time
  7. 50′Max ScholzeYellow card · CF Estrela Amadora
  8. 63′Pedro SantosYellow card · FC Arouca
  9. 81′Taichi FukuiYellow card · FC Arouca
  10. 88′Jose FontánYellow card · FC Arouca
  11. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 57′FC Arouca · 1 player changePedro Santos
  • 61′CF Estrela Amadora · 1 player changeBénito
  • 62′CF Estrela Amadora · 1 player changeJefferson Encada
  • 65′FC Arouca · 2 player changesGabriel Rukavina · Dylan Nandín
  • 79′FC Arouca · 1 player changeHyun-ju Lee
  • 80′FC Arouca · 1 player changeBrian Mansilla
  • 82′CF Estrela Amadora · 1 player changeEmerson Pedro Vanga
  • 90′CF Estrela Amadora · 2 player changesKevin Höög Jansson · Alisson Souza de Jesus

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

FC Arouca4-2-3-1
  1. Ignacio de ArruabarrenaG
  2. Jose FontánD
  3. Javi SánchezD
  4. Orest LebedenkoD
  5. Tiago EsgaioD
  6. Espen Van EeM
  7. Taichi FukuiM
  8. Pablo GozálbezM
  9. Naïs DjouahraF
  10. Ivan BarberoF
  11. Alfonso TrezzaF

Substitutes

  • Jakub Vinarčík
  • Leo Shahar
  • Diogo Monteiro
  • Boris Popović
  • Mario Climent
  • Hyun-ju Lee
  • Mateo Flores
  • Pedro Santos
  • Fally Mayulu
  • Gabriel Rukavina
  • Dylan Nandín
  • Brian Mansilla
CF Estrela Amadora4-2-3-1
  1. Léo LinckG
  2. Stefan LekovićD
  3. Max ScholzeD
  4. Luan PatrickD
  5. Rafa SoaresD
  6. Lovro ZvonarekM
  7. Eddy DouéM
  8. Santiago SerraM
  9. Ianis StoicaF
  10. Leandro AntonettiF
  11. Abraham MarcusF

Substitutes

  • Diogo Pinto
  • Lucas Mincarelli
  • Bernardo Schappo
  • Jefferson Encada
  • Atanas Chernev
  • Kevin Höög Jansson
  • Tom Moustier
  • Emerson Pedro Vanga
  • Bénito
  • René Mitongo
  • Henrique Poniewas
  • Alisson Souza de Jesus

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2FC Arouca
1Draws
2CF Estrela Amadora
FC Arouca — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga1–0
CF Estrela Amadora — FC Arouca · Primeira Liga3–1
FC Arouca — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga1–0
CF Estrela Amadora — FC Arouca · Primeira Liga2–1
FC Arouca — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Arouca favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · CF Estrela Amadora in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Arouca8 matchesCF Estrela Amadora8 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 1.75 goals/match
0.88 goals/match ▲Goals allowed8/81.88 goals/match
1.18 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.28 xG/match
10.4 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 13 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 4.38 shots/match
48.9%Possession8/8● 51.1%
3.13 corners/matchCorners8/8● 4.25 corners/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls8/810.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC AroucaCF Estrela Amadora
CompetitionPrimeira Liga
Head-to-headFC Arouca — CF Estrela Amadora
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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