PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2026

Rio Ave 3–2 CD Nacional · Primeira Liga

Rio Ave

WLLDL
3–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Rio Ave won 3–2.

Shots
1112
Shots on target
75
Expected goals
1.661.21
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Rio Ave beat CD Nacional 3–2. Recorded in this match (Rio Ave – CD Nacional): shots 11–12, shots on target 7–5, expected goals 1.66–1.21, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Rio Ave have a visible home split

weak

Rio Ave's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

10.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season7.63 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match7.63 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Rio Ave's recent record differs from the season

weak

Rio Ave's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goal/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

CD Nacional show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

CD Nacional's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

7.63 shots/match ▲ShotsRio Ave · CD Nacional10.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRio AveCD NacionalBaseline
Shots7.63 shots/match10.9 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against16.5 shots/match14.6 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots12 shotsRio Ave 11 shots, CD Nacional 12 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots5 shotsRio Ave 7 shots, CD Nacional 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.66 xG1.21 xGRio Ave 1.66 xG, CD Nacional 1.21 xG
  • Possession56%44%Rio Ave 56%, CD Nacional 44%
  • Corners8 corners8 cornersRio Ave 8 corners, CD Nacional 8 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls17 foulsRio Ave 7 fouls, CD Nacional 17 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards0 cardsRio Ave 4 cards, CD Nacional 0 cards
  • Passes423 passes316 passesRio Ave 423 passes, CD Nacional 316 passes
  • Pass accuracy85.3%77.2%Rio Ave 85.3%, CD Nacional 77.2%
  • Shots inside box6 shots8 shotsRio Ave 6 shots, CD Nacional 8 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks1 blockRio Ave 4 blocks, CD Nacional 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves3 savesRio Ave 3 saves, CD Nacional 3 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides3 offsidesRio Ave 0 offsides, CD Nacional 3 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 32′Abdel Kader NjoyaGoal · CD Nacional
  2. 39′Sebastian ClemmensenGoal · Rio Ave
  3. Half-time
  4. 50′João ToméYellow card · Rio Ave
  5. 54′João ToméSecond yellow · Rio Ave
  6. 57′Diogo BezerraGoal · Rio Ave
  7. 59′Abdel Kader NjoyaGoal · CD Nacional
  8. 72′Jalen BlesaPenalty goal · Rio Ave
  9. 73′Jalen BlesaYellow card · Rio Ave
  10. 90′Roland GalčíkYellow card · Rio Ave
  11. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 63′Rio Ave · 2 player changesRoland Galčík · Francisco Petrasso
  • 68′CD Nacional · 2 player changesFernando Nava · Miguel Baeza
  • 76′Rio Ave · 2 player changesSimon Garcia · Diogo Nascimento
  • 78′CD Nacional · 1 player changeAllen Obando
  • 78′Rio Ave · 1 player changeTamblé Monteiro
  • 81′CD Nacional · 2 player changesJoel Silva · Stavros Gavriel

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Rio Ave
  1. Vitor HugoG
  2. Marios VrousaiD
  3. João ToméD
  4. Gustavo ManchaD
  5. Sebastian ClemmensenD
  6. Andreas NdojM
  7. Georgios LiavasM
  8. Miguel PatricioM
  9. Diogo BezerraF
  10. Jalen BlesaF
  11. Malik SelloukiF
CD Nacional
  1. Renato MarinG
  2. Williams KokoloD
  3. Francisco GonçalvesD
  4. Ze VitorD
  5. Deivison Souza BritoD
  6. Daniel JúniorM
  7. Chiheb LabidiM
  8. Matchoi DjalóM
  9. Min-kyu SongF
  10. Abdel Kader NjoyaF
  11. Danel DongmoF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Rio Ave
2Draws
1CD Nacional
CD Nacional — Rio Ave · Primeira Liga4–0
Rio Ave — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga1–1
CD Nacional — Rio Ave · Primeira Liga3–3
Rio Ave — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Rio Ave favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · CD Nacional in 7 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Rio Ave8 matchesCD Nacional8 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 1.13 goals/match
2.13 goals/match ▲Goals allowed8/82.25 goals/match
0.68 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.16 xG/match
7.63 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 10.9 shots/match
3.13 shots/matchShots on target8/83.13 shots/match
44.6%Possession8/8● 50%
3.75 corners/matchCorners8/8● 4.38 corners/match
8.88 fouls/matchFouls8/811.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRio AveCD Nacional
CompetitionPrimeira Liga
Head-to-headRio Ave — CD Nacional
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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