PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2026

CF Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia · Primeira Liga

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.750.38
Expected goals
1.280.84
Shots
139.63
Possession
51.1%43.9%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: casa Pia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: casa Pia's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Casa Pia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Casa Pia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.38 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Casa Pia show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Casa Pia's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13 shots/match ▲ShotsCF Estrela Amadora · Casa Pia9.63 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCF Estrela AmadoraCasa PiaBaseline
Shots13 shots/match9.63 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against11 shots/match15.5 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CF Estrela Amadora favored in 12 of 13 directional metrics · Casa Pia in 1

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CF Estrela Amadora8 matchesCasa Pia8 matches
1.75 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/80.38 goals/match
1.88 goals/match ▲Goals allowed8/82.13 goals/match
1.28 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/80.84 xG/match
13 shots/match ▲Shots8/89.63 shots/match
4.38 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/82.63 shots/match
51.1% ●Possession8/843.9%
4.25 corners/match ●Corners8/84 corners/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls8/812.1 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3CF Estrela Amadora
0Draws
2Casa Pia
CF Estrela Amadora — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga4–0
Casa Pia — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga3–5
Casa Pia — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga1–0
CF Estrela Amadora — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga0–1
CF Estrela Amadora — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness14 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCF Estrela AmadoraCasa Pia
CompetitionPrimeira Liga
Head-to-headCF Estrela Amadora — Casa Pia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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