PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2026

CF Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia · Primeira Liga

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
20.43
Expected goals
1.260.89
Shots
13.310.3
Possession
49.4%44.7%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: casa Pia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: CF Estrela Amadora's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Casa Pia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Casa Pia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.43 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

CF Estrela Amadora show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

CF Estrela Amadora's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match ▲ShotsCF Estrela Amadora · Casa Pia10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCF Estrela AmadoraCasa PiaBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match10.3 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against11.6 shots/match15.7 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CF Estrela Amadora favored in 12 of 13 directional metrics · Casa Pia in 1

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CF Estrela Amadora7 matchesCasa Pia7 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/70.43 goals/match
2 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/72.29 goals/match
1.26 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/70.89 xG/match
13.3 shots/match ▲Shots7/710.3 shots/match
4.71 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/72.71 shots/match
49.4% ●Possession7/744.7%
4 corners/matchCorners7/7● 4.14 corners/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls7/711.4 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3CF Estrela Amadora
0Draws
2Casa Pia
CF Estrela Amadora — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga4–0
Casa Pia — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga3–5
Casa Pia — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga1–0
CF Estrela Amadora — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga0–1
CF Estrela Amadora — Casa Pia · Primeira Liga3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness34 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCF Estrela AmadoraCasa Pia
CompetitionPrimeira Liga
Head-to-headCF Estrela Amadora — Casa Pia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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