PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2026

FC Alverca vs FC Arouca · Primeira Liga

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.631.38
Expected goals
1.581.18
Shots
12.110.4
Possession
42.5%48.9%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: FC Alverca's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

FC Alverca's recent record differs from the season

weak

FC Alverca's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.63 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Arouca have a visible away split

weak

FC Arouca's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.75 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.75 shots/match10.4 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Alverca favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · FC Arouca in 4 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Alverca8 matchesFC Arouca8 matches
1.63 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/81.38 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 0.88 goals/match
1.58 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/81.18 xG/match
12.1 shots/match ▲Shots8/810.4 shots/match
4.13 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/83.75 shots/match
42.5%Possession8/8● 48.9%
4.75 corners/match ●Corners8/83.13 corners/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls8/810.4 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1FC Alverca
0Draws
1FC Arouca
FC Alverca — FC Arouca · Primeira Liga2–1
FC Arouca — FC Alverca · Primeira Liga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness13 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC AlvercaFC Arouca
CompetitionPrimeira Liga
Head-to-headFC Alverca — FC Arouca
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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