FC Arouca vs CD Nacional — Stats & Match Analysis

Primeira Liga · 2026Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC

FC Arouca

LWDLD

vsPre-match analysis

CD Nacional

LLLLL

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored: 1.431
Expected goals: 1.241.15
Shots: 10.910.7
Possession: 50.6%50.9%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: CD Nacional's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: CD Nacional's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

CD Nacional's recent record differs from the season

moderate

CD Nacional's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1 goal/match	1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

CD Nacional have a visible away split

weak

CD Nacional's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

6.67 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	6.67 shots/match	10.7 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Arouca favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · CD Nacional in 1 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Arouca7 matchesCD Nacional7 matches

1.43 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/71 goal/match

1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed7/72.14 goals/match

1.24 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.15 xG/match

10.9 shots/matchShots7/710.7 shots/match

3.86 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/72.86 shots/match

50.6%Possession7/7● 50.9%

2.86 corners/matchCorners7/7● 3.86 corners/match

10.4 fouls/matchFouls7/710.3 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4FC Arouca

0Draws

0CD Nacional

21 Feb 2026FC Arouca — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga3–0

20 Sept 2025CD Nacional — FC Arouca · Primeira Liga1–2

1 Feb 2025CD Nacional — FC Arouca · Primeira Liga1–2

25 Aug 2024FC Arouca — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness43 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match ranking xG per match ranking Shots per match ranking

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Season

What the record shows