PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2026

Marítimo 1–2 FC Porto · Primeira Liga

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

FC Porto won 1–2.

Shots
719
Shots on target
49
Expected goals
0.192.13
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Porto beat Marítimo 2–1. Recorded in this match (Marítimo – FC Porto): shots 7–19, shots on target 4–9, expected goals 0.19–2.13, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Marítimo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Marítimo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Porto show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC Porto's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10 shots/match ▲ShotsMarítimo · FC Porto16.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMarítimoFC PortoBaseline
Shots10 shots/match16.4 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against14.1 shots/match10.3 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

FC Porto have a visible away split

weak

FC Porto's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

13.8 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season16.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match16.4 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots19 shotsMarítimo 7 shots, FC Porto 19 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots9 shotsMarítimo 4 shots, FC Porto 9 shots
  • Expected goals0.19 xG2.13 xGMarítimo 0.19 xG, FC Porto 2.13 xG
  • Possession42%58%Marítimo 42%, FC Porto 58%
  • Corners2 corners6 cornersMarítimo 2 corners, FC Porto 6 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls15 foulsMarítimo 15 fouls, FC Porto 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsMarítimo 1 card, FC Porto 2 cards
  • Passes308 passes420 passesMarítimo 308 passes, FC Porto 420 passes
  • Pass accuracy71.8%82.4%Marítimo 71.8%, FC Porto 82.4%
  • Shots inside box2 shots15 shotsMarítimo 2 shots, FC Porto 15 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks3 blocksMarítimo 2 blocks, FC Porto 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves7 saves3 savesMarítimo 7 saves, FC Porto 3 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides2 offsidesMarítimo 0 offsides, FC Porto 2 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 16′Gábor SzalaiGoal · Marítimo
  2. 36′Alan VarelaYellow card · FC Porto
  3. 42′Victor FroholdtGoal · FC Porto
  4. Half-time
  5. 57′PepêYellow card · FC Porto
  6. 84′Oskar PietuszewskiGoal · FC Porto
  7. 87′Igor JuliãoYellow card · Marítimo
  8. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′FC Porto · 1 player changePablo Rosario
  • 54′FC Porto · 1 player changeGabri Veiga
  • 55′FC Porto · 1 player changeBorja Sainz
  • 66′Marítimo · 2 player changesRodrigo Andrade · Simo Bouzaidi
  • 67′FC Porto · 1 player changeSamu Aghehowa
  • 78′Marítimo · 1 player changeMons Bassouamina
  • 79′Marítimo · 1 player changeMaurice Boakye
  • 79′FC Porto · 1 player changeOskar Pietuszewski
  • 89′Marítimo · 1 player changeSamuel Bamba

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Marítimo
  1. Francisco VieitesG
  2. Tomás TavaresD
  3. Gábor SzalaiD
  4. Paulo HenriqueD
  5. Romain CorreiaD
  6. Maxime DominguezM
  7. Raphael GuzzoM
  8. Ibrahim AlaniM
  9. Igor JuliãoF
  10. Martín TejónF
  11. Adrián ButzkeF
FC Porto
  1. Diogo CostaG
  2. Jakub KiwiorD
  3. Jan BednarekD
  4. Alberto CostaD
  5. Francisco MouraD
  6. Victor FroholdtM
  7. Hwang In-beomM
  8. Alan VarelaM
  9. William GomesF
  10. PepêF
  11. André SilvaF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Marítimo
1Draws
3FC Porto
Marítimo — FC Porto · Primeira Liga0–2
FC Porto — Marítimo · Primeira Liga5–1
FC Porto — Marítimo · Primeira Liga2–1
Marítimo — FC Porto · Primeira Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Marítimo favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · FC Porto in 13

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Marítimo8 matchesFC Porto8 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 2.5 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 0.5 goals/match
0.85 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 2.24 xG/match
10 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 16.4 shots/match
3.25 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 6.63 shots/match
44.8%Possession8/8● 54.8%
2.88 corners/matchCorners8/8● 6.75 corners/match
15.3 fouls/matchFouls8/813.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMarítimoFC Porto
CompetitionPrimeira Liga
Head-to-headMarítimo — FC Porto
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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