PitchMath
Premier League · 2026

Arsenal 2–1 Leeds United · Premier League

Arsenal

WWWWL
2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Arsenal won 2–1.

Shots
1311
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
2.580.68
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arsenal beat Leeds United 2–1. Recorded in this match (Arsenal – Leeds United): shots 13–11, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 2.58–0.68, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Arsenal have a visible home split

weak

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.3 shots/match13 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Leeds United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Leeds United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13 shots/match ▲ShotsArsenal · Leeds United12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalLeeds UnitedBaseline
Shots13 shots/match12 shots/match13.6 shots/match
Shots against10.7 shots/match14.3 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

weak

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.67 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots11 shotsArsenal 13 shots, Leeds United 11 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsArsenal 6 shots, Leeds United 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.58 xG0.68 xGArsenal 2.58 xG, Leeds United 0.68 xG
  • Possession58%42%Arsenal 58%, Leeds United 42%
  • Corners2 corners4 cornersArsenal 2 corners, Leeds United 4 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls20 foulsArsenal 12 fouls, Leeds United 20 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card4 cardsArsenal 1 card, Leeds United 4 cards
  • Passes513 passes354 passesArsenal 513 passes, Leeds United 354 passes
  • Pass accuracy85%78.3%Arsenal 85%, Leeds United 78.3%
  • Shots inside box8 shots7 shotsArsenal 8 shots, Leeds United 7 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks3 blocksArsenal 3 blocks, Leeds United 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves4 savesArsenal 4 saves, Leeds United 4 saves
  • Offsides7 offsides4 offsidesArsenal 7 offsides, Leeds United 4 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 36′Ao TanakaYellow card · Leeds United
  2. 38′Ethan AmpaduYellow card · Leeds United
  3. Half-time
  4. 55′James JustinGoal · Leeds United
  5. 59′Tarik MuharemovićYellow card · Leeds United
  6. 62′Riccardo CalafioriGoal · Arsenal
  7. 70′Bruno GuimarãesGoal · Arsenal
  8. 78′James JustinYellow card · Leeds United
  9. 84′Martin ØdegaardYellow card · Arsenal
  10. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 63′Arsenal · 3 player changesBruno Guimarães · Viktor Gyökeres · Jurriën Timber
  • 71′Leeds United · 2 player changesBrenden Aaronson · Harry Wilson
  • 79′Leeds United · 1 player changeLukas Nmecha
  • 82′Arsenal · 1 player changePiero Hincapié
  • 86′Leeds United · 2 player changesJean-Mattéo Bahoya · Jaka Bijol
  • 90′Arsenal · 1 player changeMikel Merino

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Arsenal4-2-3-1
  1. David RayaG
  2. Cristhian MosqueraD
  3. Gabriel MagalhãesD
  4. Jurriën TimberD
  5. Riccardo CalafioriD
  6. Martin ØdegaardM
  7. Bruno GuimarãesM
  8. Declan RiceM
  9. Bukayo SakaF
  10. Eberechi EzeF
  11. Viktor GyökeresF
Leeds United3-4-2-1
  1. James TraffordG
  2. Jayden BogleD
  3. Gabriel GudmundssonD
  4. Tarik MuharemovićD
  5. James JustinD
  6. Nico ElvediD
  7. Ethan AmpaduM
  8. Ao TanakaM
  9. Dominic Calvert-LewinF
  10. Anton StachF
  11. Noah OkaforF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

5Arsenal
0Draws
0Leeds United
Leeds United — Arsenal · Premier League0–4
Arsenal — Leeds United · Premier League5–0
Arsenal — Leeds United · Premier League4–1
Leeds United — Arsenal · Premier League0–1
Arsenal — Leeds United · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Arsenal favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Leeds United in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Arsenal6 matchesLeeds United6 matches
1.67 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/61.33 goals/match
0.83 goals/matchGoals allowed6/60.83 goals/match
1.85 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/61.43 xG/match
13 shots/match ▲Shots6/612 shots/match
5 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/63.83 shots/match
59.3% ●Possession6/644.8%
4.5 corners/match ●Corners6/64.33 corners/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls6/612.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsArsenalLeeds United
CompetitionPremier League
Head-to-headArsenal — Leeds United
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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