PitchMath
Belgian Pro League · 2026

KV Mechelen 4–3 Sint-Truidense VV · Belgian Pro League

4–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

KV Mechelen won 4–3.

Shots
817
Shots on target
37
Expected goals
0.741.45
Possession
36%64%

Full time

What the match recorded

KV Mechelen beat Sint-Truidense VV 4–3. Recorded in this match (KV Mechelen – Sint-Truidense VV): shots 8–17, shots on target 3–7, expected goals 0.74–1.45, possession 36%–64%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Sint-Truidense VV's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sint-Truidense VV's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.88 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Sint-Truidense VV show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Sint-Truidense VV's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match ▲ShotsKV Mechelen · Sint-Truidense VV17.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricKV MechelenSint-Truidense VVBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match17.3 shots/match14.1 shots/match
Shots against14.6 shots/match14 shots/match14.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Sint-Truidense VV have recorded the higher season possession share.

47.4%PossessionKV Mechelen · Sint-Truidense VV● 56.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricKV MechelenSint-Truidense VVBaseline
Possession47.4%56.5%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots17 shotsKV Mechelen 8 shots, Sint-Truidense VV 17 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots7 shotsKV Mechelen 3 shots, Sint-Truidense VV 7 shots
  • Expected goals0.74 xG1.45 xGKV Mechelen 0.74 xG, Sint-Truidense VV 1.45 xG
  • Possession36%64%KV Mechelen 36%, Sint-Truidense VV 64%
  • Corners2 corners8 cornersKV Mechelen 2 corners, Sint-Truidense VV 8 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls14 foulsKV Mechelen 12 fouls, Sint-Truidense VV 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards4 cardsKV Mechelen 2 cards, Sint-Truidense VV 4 cards
  • Passes337 passes602 passesKV Mechelen 337 passes, Sint-Truidense VV 602 passes
  • Pass accuracy68.8%80.7%KV Mechelen 68.8%, Sint-Truidense VV 80.7%
  • Shots inside box5 shots12 shotsKV Mechelen 5 shots, Sint-Truidense VV 12 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks2 blocksKV Mechelen 2 blocks, Sint-Truidense VV 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves1 saveKV Mechelen 4 saves, Sint-Truidense VV 1 save
  • Offsides4 offsides1 offsideKV Mechelen 4 offsides, Sint-Truidense VV 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 5′Kota TakaiYellow card · Sint-Truidense VV
  2. 24′Kota TakaiGoal · Sint-Truidense VV
  3. 34′Simion MichezGoal · KV Mechelen
  4. 39′Shogo TaniguchiGoal · Sint-Truidense VV
  5. 42′Kaito MatsuzawaYellow card · Sint-Truidense VV
  6. 44′Samed BaždarGoal · Sint-Truidense VV
  7. Half-time
  8. 49′Ilias SebaouiGoal · Sint-Truidense VV
  9. 53′Marco DecherfYellow card · KV Mechelen
  10. 62′Benito RamanGoal · KV Mechelen
  11. 71′Frederic Soelle SoelleGoal · Sint-Truidense VV
  12. 84′Nelson IshiwatariYellow card · Sint-Truidense VV
  13. 88′Shogo TaniguchiYellow card · Sint-Truidense VV
  14. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Sint-Truidense VV · 2 player changesNelson Ishiwatari · Nathanaël Mbuku
  • 63′KV Mechelen · 1 player changeCedric Jan Van Meirvenne
  • 67′Sint-Truidense VV · 2 player changesShion Shinkawa · Frederic Soelle Soelle
  • 81′KV Mechelen · 4 player changesMalcolm Lohunanu-Mbasi · Dennis Praet · Luc Marijnissen · Bill Antonio

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

KV Mechelen3-4-2-1
  1. Nacho MirasG
  2. José MarsàD
  3. Thérence KoudouD
  4. Kobe CorbanieD
  5. Simion MichezD
  6. Mike EerdhuijzenD
  7. Fredrik HammarM
  8. Marco DecherfM
  9. Myron Van BrederodeF
  10. Benito RamanF
  11. Bouke BoersmaF

Substitutes

  • Ortwin De Wolf
  • Luc Marijnissen
  • Gora Diouf
  • Maxim Kireev
  • Dennis Praet
  • Cedric Jan Van Meirvenne
  • Malcolm Lohunanu-Mbasi
  • Halil Özdemir
  • Bill Antonio
Sint-Truidense VV4-2-3-1
  1. Léo KokuboG
  2. Taiga HataD
  3. Kota TakaiD
  4. Shogo TaniguchiD
  5. Robert-Jan VanwesemaelD
  6. Abdoulaye SissakoM
  7. Ryan MerlenM
  8. Ryotaro ArakiM
  9. Samed BaždarF
  10. Ilias SebaouiF
  11. Kaito MatsuzawaF

Substitutes

  • Matt Lendfers
  • Wolke Janssens
  • Joedrick Pupe
  • Visar Musliu
  • Nelson Ishiwatari
  • Shion Shinkawa
  • Nathanaël Mbuku
  • Frederic Soelle Soelle
  • Oumar Diouf

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0KV Mechelen
1Draws
4Sint-Truidense VV
Sint-Truidense VV — KV Mechelen · Belgian Pro League3–0
KV Mechelen — Sint-Truidense VV · Belgian Pro League1–4
Sint-Truidense VV — KV Mechelen · Belgian Pro League1–0
KV Mechelen — Sint-Truidense VV · Belgian Pro League1–3
KV Mechelen — Sint-Truidense VV · Belgian Pro League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: KV Mechelen favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Sint-Truidense VV in 9 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

KV Mechelen8 matchesSint-Truidense VV8 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 1.88 goals/match
2.13 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 2 goals/match
1.16 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.85 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 17.3 shots/match
3.13 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 4.63 shots/match
47.4%Possession8/8● 56.5%
4.63 corners/matchCorners8/8● 5.38 corners/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls8/810.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 21:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Belgian Pro League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsKV MechelenSint-Truidense VV
CompetitionBelgian Pro League
Head-to-headKV Mechelen — Sint-Truidense VV
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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