PitchMath
Serie B · 2023

Chapecoense 1–0 Ituano · Serie B

1–0Historical match

Ituano

DLWDD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Chapecoense won 1–0.

Shots
1118
Shots on target
61
Expected goals
0.820.83
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Chapecoense beat Ituano 1–0. Recorded in this match (Chapecoense – Ituano): shots 11–18, shots on target 6–1, expected goals 0.82–0.83, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Ituano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Ituano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.94 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.94 goals/match1.11 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Ituano.

9.15 days ▲Rest daysChapecoense · Ituano3.9 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricChapecoenseItuanoBaseline
Rest days9.15 days3.9 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots18 shotsChapecoense 11 shots, Ituano 18 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots1 shotChapecoense 6 shots, Ituano 1 shot
  • Expected goals0.82 xG0.83 xGChapecoense 0.82 xG, Ituano 0.83 xG
  • Possession42%58%Chapecoense 42%, Ituano 58%
  • Corners3 corners4 cornersChapecoense 3 corners, Ituano 4 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls23 foulsChapecoense 18 fouls, Ituano 23 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Chapecoense favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Ituano in 3 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Chapecoense17 matchesItuano18 matches
1.24 goals/match ▲Goals scored17/180.94 goals/match
1.35 goals/matchGoals allowed17/18▲ 1.11 goals/match
1.27 xG/match ▲Expected goals16/170.94 xG/match
14.5 shots/match ▲Shots16/1712.3 shots/match
4.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target16/173.59 shots/match
50.5% ●Possession16/1749.5%
5.56 corners/match ●Corners16/174.35 corners/match
16.4 fouls/matchFouls16/1718.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 19 Jul 2023, 02:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsChapecoenseItuano
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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