PitchMath
Serie B · 2023

Ituano 1–1 Guarani · Serie B

Ituano

DLLDW
1–1Historical match

Guarani

DWWWD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Ituano and Guarani drew 1–1.

Shots
185
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
1.170.96
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Ituano and Guarani drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Ituano – Guarani): shots 18–5, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 1.17–0.96, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Ituano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Ituano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.91 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.91 goals/match1.07 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Ituano, Guarani.

2.92 days ▲Rest daysItuano · Guarani2.81 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricItuanoGuaraniBaseline
Rest days2.92 days2.81 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots5 shotsItuano 18 shots, Guarani 5 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsItuano 3 shots, Guarani 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.17 xG0.96 xGItuano 1.17 xG, Guarani 0.96 xG
  • Possession53%47%Ituano 53%, Guarani 47%
  • Corners6 corners2 cornersItuano 6 corners, Guarani 2 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls8 foulsItuano 13 fouls, Guarani 8 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Ituano
0Draws
1Guarani
Guarani — Ituano · Serie B1–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Ituano favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Guarani in 7 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Ituano22 matchesGuarani22 matches
0.91 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲ 1.23 goals/match
1.05 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲ 0.77 goals/match
0.94 xG/matchExpected goals21/21▲ 1.23 xG/match
12.8 shots/match ▲Shots21/2111.4 shots/match
3.62 shots/matchShots on target21/213.67 shots/match
50.4% ●Possession21/2149.8%
5 corners/match ●Corners21/214.76 corners/match
17.9 fouls/matchFouls21/2111.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 6 Aug 2023, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsItuanoGuarani
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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