PitchMath
Serie B · 2023

Botafogo-SP 0–1 Avaí · Serie B

0–1Historical match

Avaí

LWLLD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Avaí won 0–1.

Shots
128
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
0.750.99
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

Avaí beat Botafogo-SP 1–0. Recorded in this match (Botafogo-SP – Avaí): shots 12–8, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 0.75–0.99, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Botafogo-SP's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Botafogo-SP's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.61 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.61 goals/match1.05 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Botafogo-SP have a visible home split

moderate

Botafogo-SP's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match12.3 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots8 shotsBotafogo-SP 12 shots, Avaí 8 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsBotafogo-SP 4 shots, Avaí 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.75 xG0.99 xGBotafogo-SP 0.75 xG, Avaí 0.99 xG
  • Possession51%49%Botafogo-SP 51%, Avaí 49%
  • Corners2 corners3 cornersBotafogo-SP 2 corners, Avaí 3 corners
  • Fouls19 fouls13 foulsBotafogo-SP 19 fouls, Avaí 13 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Botafogo-SP
1Draws
0Avaí
Avaí — Botafogo-SP · Serie B1–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo-SP favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Avaí in 3 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo-SP31 matchesAvaí31 matches
0.61 goals/matchGoals scored31/31▲ 0.84 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed31/311.32 goals/match
0.93 xG/matchExpected goals31/30▲ 1.05 xG/match
12.3 shots/match ▲Shots31/3011.2 shots/match
3.23 shots/matchShots on target31/303.17 shots/match
44.4%Possession31/30● 49.2%
5.55 corners/match ●Corners31/304.8 corners/match
15.6 fouls/matchFouls31/3015.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Oct 2023, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogo-SPAvaí
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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