PitchMath
Serie B · 2023

Guarani 0–1 Botafogo-SP · Serie B

Guarani

LWDLD
0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Botafogo-SP won 0–1.

Shots
1218
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
1.191.53
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

Botafogo-SP beat Guarani 1–0. Recorded in this match (Guarani – Botafogo-SP): shots 12–18, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 1.19–1.53, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Botafogo-SP's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Botafogo-SP's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.68 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.68 goals/match1.03 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Guarani have a visible home split

moderate

Guarani's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match11.3 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots18 shotsGuarani 12 shots, Botafogo-SP 18 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsGuarani 3 shots, Botafogo-SP 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.19 xG1.53 xGGuarani 1.19 xG, Botafogo-SP 1.53 xG
  • Possession40%60%Guarani 40%, Botafogo-SP 60%
  • Corners5 corners5 cornersGuarani 5 corners, Botafogo-SP 5 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls14 foulsGuarani 15 fouls, Botafogo-SP 14 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Guarani
0Draws
1Botafogo-SP
Botafogo-SP — Guarani · Serie B1–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Guarani favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Botafogo-SP in 3 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Guarani34 matchesBotafogo-SP34 matches
1.15 goals/match ▲Goals scored34/340.68 goals/match
0.76 goals/match ▲Goals allowed34/341 goal/match
1.15 xG/match ▲Expected goals33/340.93 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots33/34▲ 12.3 shots/match
3.61 shots/match ▲Shots on target33/343.26 shots/match
49.3% ●Possession33/3444.7%
4.88 corners/matchCorners33/34● 5.32 corners/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls33/3415.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Oct 2023, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsGuaraniBotafogo-SP
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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