PitchMath
Serie B · 2023

Guarani 2–3 ABC · Serie B

Guarani

LDLDD
2–3Historical match

ABC

LLDLD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

ABC won 2–3.

Shots
298
Shots on target
84
Expected goals
3.440.54
Possession
72%28%

Full time

What the match recorded

ABC beat Guarani 3–2. Recorded in this match (Guarani – ABC): shots 29–8, shots on target 8–4, expected goals 3.44–0.54, possession 72%–28%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

ABC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

ABC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.68 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.68 goals/match1.05 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Guarani have a visible home split

moderate

Guarani's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match12.1 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots29 shots8 shotsGuarani 29 shots, ABC 8 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots4 shotsGuarani 8 shots, ABC 4 shots
  • Expected goals3.44 xG0.54 xGGuarani 3.44 xG, ABC 0.54 xG
  • Possession72%28%Guarani 72%, ABC 28%
  • Corners10 corners1 cornerGuarani 10 corners, ABC 1 corner
  • Fouls12 fouls15 foulsGuarani 12 fouls, ABC 15 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Guarani
0Draws
0ABC
ABC — Guarani · Serie B0–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Guarani favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · ABC in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Guarani37 matchesABC37 matches
1.14 goals/match ▲Goals scored37/370.68 goals/match
0.81 goals/match ▲Goals allowed37/371.32 goals/match
1.2 xG/match ▲Expected goals36/361 xG/match
12.1 shots/match ▲Shots36/3610.7 shots/match
3.81 shots/match ▲Shots on target36/363.42 shots/match
50.6% ●Possession36/3647.3%
5.33 corners/match ●Corners36/364.42 corners/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls36/3615.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples37 / 37home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Nov 2023, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsGuaraniABC
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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