PitchMath
Serie B · 2024

Ituano 3–5 Paysandu · Serie B

Ituano

WLWLL
3–5Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Paysandu won 3–5.

Shots
1718
Shots on target
79
Expected goals
2.162.79
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Paysandu SC beat Ituano 5–3. Recorded in this match (Ituano – Paysandu SC): shots 17–18, shots on target 7–9, expected goals 2.16–2.79, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Paysandu SC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paysandu SC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.1 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paysandu SC show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Paysandu SC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match ▲ShotsItuano · Paysandu SC11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricItuanoPaysandu SCBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match11.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match
Shots against17.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots18 shotsItuano 17 shots, Paysandu 18 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots9 shotsItuano 7 shots, Paysandu 9 shots
  • Expected goals2.16 xG2.79 xGItuano 2.16 xG, Paysandu 2.79 xG
  • Possession46%54%Ituano 46%, Paysandu 54%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersItuano 6 corners, Paysandu 4 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls17 foulsItuano 15 fouls, Paysandu 17 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Ituano favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Paysandu in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Ituano10 matchesPaysandu10 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored10/10▲ 1.1 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲ 1.1 goals/match
1.43 xG/match ▲Expected goals10/101.03 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots10/1011.4 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲ 3.8 shots/match
45.3%Possession10/10● 52.1%
3.8 corners/matchCorners10/10● 5.2 corners/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1016.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Jun 2024, 01:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsItuanoPaysandu
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2024
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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