PitchMath
Serie B · 2024

Brusque 1–0 Ceará · Serie B

Brusque

DLDDL
1–0Historical match

Ceará

WDWWL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Brusque won 1–0.

Shots
1217
Shots on target
13
Expected goals
0.970.83
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

Brusque beat Ceará 1–0. Recorded in this match (Brusque – Ceará): shots 12–17, shots on target 1–3, expected goals 0.97–0.83, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Ceará's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Ceará's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.5 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Ceará show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Ceará's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match ▲ShotsBrusque · Ceará14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrusqueCearáBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match14.4 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against16.7 shots/match11.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots17 shotsBrusque 12 shots, Ceará 17 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot3 shotsBrusque 1 shot, Ceará 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.97 xG0.83 xGBrusque 0.97 xG, Ceará 0.83 xG
  • Possession49%51%Brusque 49%, Ceará 51%
  • Corners2 corners6 cornersBrusque 2 corners, Ceará 6 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls18 foulsBrusque 15 fouls, Ceará 18 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Brusque favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Ceará in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Brusque10 matchesCeará10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲ 1.5 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲ 1.2 goals/match
0.69 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲ 1.81 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲ 14.4 shots/match
3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲ 4.6 shots/match
46.9%Possession10/10● 49.7%
4 corners/matchCorners10/10● 7.6 corners/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1016.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Jun 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBrusqueCeará
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2024
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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