PitchMath
Serie B · 2024

Brusque 1–0 Paysandu · Serie B

Brusque

DDDDD
1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Brusque won 1–0.

Shots
1016
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
1.921.07
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

Brusque beat Paysandu SC 1–0. Recorded in this match (Brusque – Paysandu SC): shots 10–16, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 1.92–1.07, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brusque.

3.1 days ▲Rest daysBrusque · Paysandu SC4.12 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBrusquePaysandu SCBaseline
Rest days3.1 days4.12 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Brusque's recent record differs from the season

weak

Brusque's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.82 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.82 goals/match1.06 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots16 shotsBrusque 10 shots, Paysandu 16 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsBrusque 5 shots, Paysandu 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.92 xG1.07 xGBrusque 1.92 xG, Paysandu 1.07 xG
  • Possession40%60%Brusque 40%, Paysandu 60%
  • Corners2 corners9 cornersBrusque 2 corners, Paysandu 9 corners
  • Fouls20 fouls14 foulsBrusque 20 fouls, Paysandu 14 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Brusque favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Paysandu in 9

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Brusque17 matchesPaysandu17 matches
0.82 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲ 1.12 goals/match
1.24 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲ 1 goal/match
1.2 xG/match ▲Expected goals17/171.13 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots17/17▲ 12.6 shots/match
3.76 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲ 4 shots/match
47.2%Possession17/17● 54.4%
4.18 corners/matchCorners17/17● 6.12 corners/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls17/1716.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 25 Jul 2024, 04:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBrusquePaysandu
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2024
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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