PitchMath
Serie B · 2024

Brusque 1–0 Ituano · Serie B

Brusque

WLWLD
1–0Historical match

Ituano

WLLLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Brusque won 1–0.

Shots
2112
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
1.511.13
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Brusque beat Ituano 1–0. Recorded in this match (Brusque – Ituano): shots 21–12, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 1.51–1.13, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Ituano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Ituano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match1.1 goals/match1.02 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Brusque show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Brusque's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.5 shots/match ▲ShotsBrusque · Ituano10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrusqueItuanoBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against14.6 shots/match17.1 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots12 shotsBrusque 21 shots, Ituano 12 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsBrusque 6 shots, Ituano 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.51 xG1.13 xGBrusque 1.51 xG, Ituano 1.13 xG
  • Possession47%53%Brusque 47%, Ituano 53%
  • Corners8 corners4 cornersBrusque 8 corners, Ituano 4 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls12 foulsBrusque 10 fouls, Ituano 12 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Brusque
1Draws
0Ituano
Ituano — Brusque · Serie B1–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Brusque favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Ituano in 4

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Brusque31 matchesItuano31 matches
0.68 goals/matchGoals scored31/31▲ 1.1 goals/match
1.06 goals/match ▲Goals allowed31/311.61 goals/match
1 xG/matchExpected goals31/31▲ 1.2 xG/match
11.5 shots/match ▲Shots31/3110.8 shots/match
3.32 shots/matchShots on target31/31▲ 3.61 shots/match
46.7% ●Possession31/3144.3%
4.13 corners/matchCorners31/31● 4.48 corners/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls31/3111.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 15 Oct 2024, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBrusqueItuano
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2024
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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