PitchMath
Serie B · 2024

Brusque 2–1 Guarani · Serie B

Brusque

LLLLL
2–1Historical match

Guarani

WLLLD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Brusque won 2–1.

Shots
821
Shots on target
210
Expected goals
0.890.93
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Brusque beat Guarani 2–1. Recorded in this match (Brusque – Guarani): shots 8–21, shots on target 2–10, expected goals 0.89–0.93, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Guarani's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Guarani's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.89 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.89 goals/match1.07 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Guarani show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Guarani's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.9 shots/match ▲ShotsBrusque · Guarani14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrusqueGuaraniBaseline
Shots11.9 shots/match14.5 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against14.8 shots/match10.9 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots21 shotsBrusque 8 shots, Guarani 21 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots10 shotsBrusque 2 shots, Guarani 10 shots
  • Expected goals0.89 xG0.93 xGBrusque 0.89 xG, Guarani 0.93 xG
  • Possession42%58%Brusque 42%, Guarani 58%
  • Corners0 corners8 cornersBrusque 0 corners, Guarani 8 corners
  • Fouls19 fouls8 foulsBrusque 19 fouls, Guarani 8 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Brusque
0Draws
1Guarani
Guarani — Brusque · Serie B1–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Brusque favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Guarani in 9

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Brusque37 matchesGuarani37 matches
0.65 goals/matchGoals scored37/37▲ 0.89 goals/match
1.11 goals/match ▲Goals allowed37/371.43 goals/match
0.96 xG/matchExpected goals37/37▲ 1.18 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots37/37▲ 14.5 shots/match
3.3 shots/matchShots on target37/37▲ 4.54 shots/match
47.2%Possession37/37● 49.7%
4.11 corners/matchCorners37/37● 6.11 corners/match
14 fouls/matchFouls37/3713.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples37 / 37home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 Nov 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBrusqueGuarani
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2024
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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