PitchMath
Serie B · 2024

Botafogo-SP 1–3 Avaí · Serie B

1–3Historical match

Avaí

LLWLD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Avaí won 1–3.

Shots
714
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
0.542.58
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Avaí beat Botafogo-SP 3–1. Recorded in this match (Botafogo-SP – Avaí): shots 7–14, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 0.54–2.58, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Avaí's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Avaí's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.86 goals/match1.07 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots14 shotsBotafogo-SP 7 shots, Avaí 14 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsBotafogo-SP 5 shots, Avaí 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.54 xG2.58 xGBotafogo-SP 0.54 xG, Avaí 2.58 xG
  • Possession52%48%Botafogo-SP 52%, Avaí 48%
  • Corners3 corners9 cornersBotafogo-SP 3 corners, Avaí 9 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls17 foulsBotafogo-SP 14 fouls, Avaí 17 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Botafogo-SP
2Draws
1Avaí
Avaí — Botafogo-SP · Serie B1–1
Botafogo-SP — Avaí · Serie B0–1
Avaí — Botafogo-SP · Serie B1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo-SP favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Avaí in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo-SP37 matchesAvaí37 matches
0.89 goals/matchGoals scored37/370.86 goals/match
1.35 goals/matchGoals allowed37/37▲ 0.84 goals/match
1.01 xG/matchExpected goals36/37▲ 1.18 xG/match
11.7 shots/matchShots37/3712.1 shots/match
3.51 shots/match ▲Shots on target37/373.27 shots/match
47.1%Possession37/37● 48.7%
5 corners/matchCorners37/37● 5.14 corners/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls37/3713.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples37 / 37home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 19 Nov 2024, 04:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogo-SPAvaí
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2024
Head-to-headBotafogo-SP — Avaí
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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