PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

CRB 2–3 São Bernardo · Serie B

CRB

WWWWL
2–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

São Bernardo won 2–3.

Shots
3210
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
1.631.69
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

São Bernardo beat CRB 3–2. Recorded in this match (CRB – São Bernardo): shots 32–10, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 1.63–1.69, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

CRB's recent record differs from the season

moderate

CRB's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.58 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.58 goals/match1.13 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

CRB have a visible home split

moderate

CRB's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

25.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season19 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots25.3 shots/match19 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots32 shots10 shotsCRB 32 shots, São Bernardo 10 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsCRB 6 shots, São Bernardo 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.63 xG1.69 xGCRB 1.63 xG, São Bernardo 1.69 xG
  • Possession59%41%CRB 59%, São Bernardo 41%
  • Corners8 corners0 cornersCRB 8 corners, São Bernardo 0 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls16 foulsCRB 11 fouls, São Bernardo 16 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CRB favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · São Bernardo in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CRB12 matchesSão Bernardo12 matches
1.58 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲ 1.67 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲ 0.83 goals/match
1.38 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/51.12 xG/match
19 shots/match ▲Shots9/512 shots/match
6 shots/match ▲Shots on target9/54.2 shots/match
55.3% ●Possession9/547%
4.56 corners/match ●Corners9/53.8 corners/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls9/510 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 7 Jun 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCRBSão Bernardo
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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