PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Ceará 2–1 Avaí · Serie B

Ceará

LLWLL
2–1Full-time analysis

Avaí

DDLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Ceará won 2–1.

Shots
1711
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
0.930.4
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Ceará beat Avaí 2–1. Recorded in this match (Ceará – Avaí): shots 17–11, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 0.93–0.4, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Avaí's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Avaí's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots11 shotsCeará 17 shots, Avaí 11 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsCeará 4 shots, Avaí 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.93 xG0.4 xGCeará 0.93 xG, Avaí 0.4 xG
  • Possession42%58%Ceará 42%, Avaí 58%
  • Corners8 corners0 cornersCeará 8 corners, Avaí 0 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls11 foulsCeará 14 fouls, Avaí 11 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Ceará
1Draws
2Avaí
Ceará — Avaí · Serie B2–0
Avaí — Ceará · Serie B0–1
Avaí — Ceará · Serie B1–0
Ceará — Avaí · Serie B0–0
Avaí — Ceará · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Ceará favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Avaí in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Ceará12 matchesAvaí12 matches
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals scored12/121 goal/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed12/121.42 goals/match
1.07 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/60.73 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots5/611.3 shots/match
3.8 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/63.5 shots/match
47%Possession5/6● 50.8%
6.2 corners/match ●Corners5/62.17 corners/match
16 fouls/matchFouls5/614.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 11 Jun 2026, 03:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCearáAvaí
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headCeará — Avaí
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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