PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Cuiabá 1–0 América Mineiro · Serie B

Cuiabá

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1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Cuiabá won 1–0.

Shots
159
Shots on target
61
Expected goals
1.110.44
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cuiabá beat América Mineiro 1–0. Recorded in this match (Cuiabá – América Mineiro): shots 15–9, shots on target 6–1, expected goals 1.11–0.44, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cuiabá's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cuiabá's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.75 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots9 shotsCuiabá 15 shots, América Mineiro 9 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots1 shotCuiabá 6 shots, América Mineiro 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.11 xG0.44 xGCuiabá 1.11 xG, América Mineiro 0.44 xG
  • Possession56%44%Cuiabá 56%, América Mineiro 44%
  • Corners7 corners2 cornersCuiabá 7 corners, América Mineiro 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls12 foulsCuiabá 10 fouls, América Mineiro 12 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Cuiabá
2Draws
0América Mineiro
América Mineiro — Cuiabá · Serie B1–1
Cuiabá — América Mineiro · Serie B3–1
Cuiabá — América Mineiro · Serie A2–2
América Mineiro — Cuiabá · Serie A1–2
Cuiabá — América Mineiro · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cuiabá favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · América Mineiro in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cuiabá16 matchesAmérica Mineiro16 matches
0.75 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/160.63 goals/match
0.5 goals/match ▲Goals allowed16/161.69 goals/match
1.4 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/81.16 xG/match
14.1 shots/match ▲Shots7/811 shots/match
5 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/83.5 shots/match
49.4%Possession7/8● 51.1%
5.57 corners/match ●Corners7/84 corners/match
16.1 fouls/matchFouls7/814.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 3 Jul 2026, 03:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCuiabáAmérica Mineiro
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headCuiabá — América Mineiro
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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