PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

CRB 2–1 Náutico · Serie B

CRB

DDWLD
2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

CRB won 2–1.

Shots
207
Shots on target
82
Expected goals
2.620.42
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

CRB beat Náutico 2–1. Recorded in this match (CRB – Náutico): shots 20–7, shots on target 8–2, expected goals 2.62–0.42, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Náutico's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Náutico's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

CRB have a visible home split

moderate

CRB's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

23.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season18.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots23.7 shots/match18.3 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots7 shotsCRB 20 shots, Náutico 7 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots2 shotsCRB 8 shots, Náutico 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.62 xG0.42 xGCRB 2.62 xG, Náutico 0.42 xG
  • Possession44%56%CRB 44%, Náutico 56%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersCRB 4 corners, Náutico 3 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls12 foulsCRB 14 fouls, Náutico 12 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CRB favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Náutico in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CRB18 matchesNáutico18 matches
1.56 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/181.17 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲ 1.28 goals/match
1.47 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/60.89 xG/match
18.3 shots/match ▲Shots12/614.3 shots/match
5.83 shots/match ▲Shots on target12/64 shots/match
52.4%Possession12/6● 54.7%
4.75 corners/match ●Corners12/64 corners/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls12/617 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 17 Jul 2026, 03:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCRBNáutico
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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