PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Náutico 2–1 Londrina · Serie B

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Náutico won 2–1.

Shots
1711
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
1.930.93
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Náutico beat Londrina 2–1. Recorded in this match (Náutico – Londrina): shots 17–11, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 1.93–0.93, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Náutico's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Náutico's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.21 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.21 goals/match1.13 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots11 shotsNáutico 17 shots, Londrina 11 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsNáutico 4 shots, Londrina 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.93 xG0.93 xGNáutico 1.93 xG, Londrina 0.93 xG
  • Possession52%48%Náutico 52%, Londrina 48%
  • Corners8 corners7 cornersNáutico 8 corners, Londrina 7 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls21 foulsNáutico 18 fouls, Londrina 21 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Náutico favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Londrina in 4

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Náutico19 matchesLondrina19 matches
1.21 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲ 1.37 goals/match
1.26 goals/match ▲Goals allowed19/191.42 goals/match
1.03 xG/matchExpected goals7/9▲ 1.12 xG/match
14.7 shots/match ▲Shots7/911.4 shots/match
4 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/93.78 shots/match
54.3% ●Possession7/944.2%
4.57 corners/matchCorners7/9● 5.44 corners/match
17.1 fouls/matchFouls7/914 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 23 Jul 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNáuticoLondrina
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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