PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Once Caldas · Primera A

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Deportivo Pasto won 1–0.

Shots
1716
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
0.810.76
Possession
63%37%

Full time

What the match recorded

Deportivo Pasto beat Once Caldas 1–0. Recorded in this match (Deportivo Pasto – Once Caldas): shots 17–16, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 0.81–0.76, possession 63%–37%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Once Caldas's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Once Caldas's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.44 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.44 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Once Caldas.

5.01 days ▲Rest daysDeportivo Pasto · Once Caldas3.08 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricDeportivo PastoOnce CaldasBaseline
Rest days5.01 days3.08 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots16 shotsDeportivo Pasto 17 shots, Once Caldas 16 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsDeportivo Pasto 4 shots, Once Caldas 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.81 xG0.76 xGDeportivo Pasto 0.81 xG, Once Caldas 0.76 xG
  • Possession63%37%Deportivo Pasto 63%, Once Caldas 37%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersDeportivo Pasto 5 corners, Once Caldas 4 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls8 foulsDeportivo Pasto 10 fouls, Once Caldas 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards3 cardsDeportivo Pasto 3 cards, Once Caldas 3 cards
  • Passes482 passes279 passesDeportivo Pasto 482 passes, Once Caldas 279 passes
  • Pass accuracy87.6%77.8%Deportivo Pasto 87.6%, Once Caldas 77.8%
  • Shots inside box8 shots6 shotsDeportivo Pasto 8 shots, Once Caldas 6 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks3 blocksDeportivo Pasto 3 blocks, Once Caldas 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves4 savesDeportivo Pasto 5 saves, Once Caldas 4 saves
  • Offsides4 offsides3 offsidesDeportivo Pasto 4 offsides, Once Caldas 3 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Deportivo Pasto
0Draws
1Once Caldas
Once Caldas — Deportivo Pasto · Primera A4–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Deportivo Pasto favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Once Caldas in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Deportivo Pasto31 matchesOnce Caldas32 matches
1.23 goals/matchGoals scored31/32▲ 1.44 goals/match
1.39 goals/matchGoals allowed31/32▲ 1.16 goals/match
1.05 xG/matchExpected goals25/281.09 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots31/31▲ 15.2 shots/match
3.68 shots/matchShots on target31/31▲ 5.68 shots/match
52.3%Possession31/31● 53.3%
4.16 corners/matchCorners31/31● 5.13 corners/match
4.83 cards/matchCards12/83.13 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls31/3110.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples31 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 05:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDeportivo PastoOnce Caldas
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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