PitchMath
Serie A · 2022

Ceará 1–0 Avaí · Serie A

Ceará

DDDLW
1–0Historical match

Avaí

LDLLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Ceará won 1–0.

Shots
1416
Shots on target
52
Expected goals
1.371
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Ceará beat Avaí 1–0. Recorded in this match (Ceará – Avaí): shots 14–16, shots on target 5–2, expected goals 1.37–1, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Ceará, Avaí.

3.02 days ▲Rest daysCeará · Avaí3.1 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricCearáAvaíBaseline
Rest days3.02 days3.1 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Ceará's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Ceará's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.11 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots16 shotsCeará 14 shots, Avaí 16 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots2 shotsCeará 5 shots, Avaí 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.37 xG1 xGCeará 1.37 xG, Avaí 1 xG
  • Possession45%55%Ceará 45%, Avaí 55%
  • Corners3 corners3 cornersCeará 3 corners, Avaí 3 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls14 foulsCeará 17 fouls, Avaí 14 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Ceará favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Avaí in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Ceará18 matchesAvaí18 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored18/181.06 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed18/181.56 goals/match
1.22 xG/matchExpected goals18/18▲ 1.31 xG/match
14.5 shots/match ▲Shots18/1811.7 shots/match
5 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/183.61 shots/match
50.8% ●Possession18/1850.7%
5.33 corners/match ●Corners18/183.72 corners/match
15.1 fouls/matchFouls18/1814.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 20 Jul 2022, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCearáAvaí
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2022
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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