PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Botafogo 4–1 Coritiba · Serie A

4–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Botafogo won 4–1.

Shots
149
Shots on target
75
Expected goals
0.961.23
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

Botafogo beat Coritiba 4–1. Recorded in this match (Botafogo – Coritiba): shots 14–9, shots on target 7–5, expected goals 0.96–1.23, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Coritiba's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Coritiba's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1 goal/match1.12 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Botafogo have a visible home split

moderate

Botafogo's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.7 shots/match14.2 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots9 shotsBotafogo 14 shots, Coritiba 9 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots5 shotsBotafogo 7 shots, Coritiba 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.96 xG1.23 xGBotafogo 0.96 xG, Coritiba 1.23 xG
  • Possession57%43%Botafogo 57%, Coritiba 43%
  • Corners7 corners3 cornersBotafogo 7 corners, Coritiba 3 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls12 foulsBotafogo 14 fouls, Coritiba 12 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Botafogo
0Draws
1Coritiba
Botafogo — Coritiba · Serie A2–0
Coritiba — Botafogo · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Coritiba in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo17 matchesCoritiba17 matches
1.88 goals/match ▲Goals scored17/171 goal/match
0.59 goals/match ▲Goals allowed17/171.88 goals/match
1.47 xG/match ▲Expected goals17/171.08 xG/match
14.2 shots/match ▲Shots17/1712.1 shots/match
5.18 shots/matchShots on target17/175.12 shots/match
46.4% ●Possession17/1743.1%
4.65 corners/matchCorners17/17● 5.35 corners/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls17/1716.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Jul 2023, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogoCoritiba
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
Head-to-headBotafogo — Coritiba
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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