PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Atlético Mineiro 1–0 Bahia · Serie A

1–0Historical match

Bahia

DLDDW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Atlético Mineiro won 1–0.

Shots
1114
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
1.050.64
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atlético Mineiro beat Bahia 1–0. Recorded in this match (Atlético Mineiro – Bahia): shots 11–14, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 1.05–0.64, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bahia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bahia's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.95 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.95 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bahia have a visible away split

moderate

Bahia's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11 shots/match13.7 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots14 shotsAtlético Mineiro 11 shots, Bahia 14 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsAtlético Mineiro 4 shots, Bahia 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.05 xG0.64 xGAtlético Mineiro 1.05 xG, Bahia 0.64 xG
  • Possession39%61%Atlético Mineiro 39%, Bahia 61%
  • Corners2 corners9 cornersAtlético Mineiro 2 corners, Bahia 9 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls12 foulsAtlético Mineiro 15 fouls, Bahia 12 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Mineiro favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Bahia in 0 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Mineiro19 matchesBahia19 matches
1.16 goals/match ▲Goals scored19/190.95 goals/match
0.89 goals/match ▲Goals allowed19/191.32 goals/match
1.32 xG/match ▲Expected goals19/191.16 xG/match
14.3 shots/matchShots19/1913.7 shots/match
4.74 shots/match ▲Shots on target19/194.26 shots/match
54.4% ●Possession19/1951.9%
5.58 corners/matchCorners19/19● 6.32 corners/match
16.5 fouls/matchFouls19/1915.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 13 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético MineiroBahia
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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