PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Grêmio 2–1 Fluminense · Serie A

Grêmio

WLWDL
2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Grêmio won 2–1.

Shots
1319
Shots on target
57
Expected goals
1.211.02
Possession
29%71%

Full time

What the match recorded

Grêmio beat Fluminense 2–1. Recorded in this match (Grêmio – Fluminense): shots 13–19, shots on target 5–7, expected goals 1.21–1.02, possession 29%–71%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Grêmio's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Grêmio's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.56 goals/match1.13 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Fluminense have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.1%PossessionGrêmio · Fluminense● 60.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricGrêmioFluminenseBaseline
Possession46.1%60.3%48.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots19 shotsGrêmio 13 shots, Fluminense 19 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots7 shotsGrêmio 5 shots, Fluminense 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.21 xG1.02 xGGrêmio 1.21 xG, Fluminense 1.02 xG
  • Possession29%71%Grêmio 29%, Fluminense 71%
  • Corners3 corners8 cornersGrêmio 3 corners, Fluminense 8 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls7 foulsGrêmio 11 fouls, Fluminense 7 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Grêmio favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Fluminense in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Grêmio18 matchesFluminense19 matches
1.56 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/191.32 goals/match
1.28 goals/matchGoals allowed18/19▲ 1 goal/match
1.53 xG/match ▲Expected goals18/191.41 xG/match
14.2 shots/match ▲Shots18/1913.2 shots/match
5.33 shots/matchShots on target18/195.47 shots/match
46.1%Possession18/19● 60.3%
5.56 corners/matchCorners18/19● 5.89 corners/match
12 fouls/matchFouls18/1913.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 13 Aug 2023, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsGrêmioFluminense
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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