PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Santos 2–1 Grêmio · Serie A

Santos

LDLDL
2–1Historical match

Grêmio

LWDLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Santos won 2–1.

Shots
199
Shots on target
73
Expected goals
1.690.43
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Santos beat Grêmio 2–1. Recorded in this match (Santos – Grêmio): shots 19–9, shots on target 7–3, expected goals 1.69–0.43, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Grêmio's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Grêmio's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.53 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Santos have a visible home split

moderate

Santos's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match10.6 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots9 shotsSantos 19 shots, Grêmio 9 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots3 shotsSantos 7 shots, Grêmio 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.69 xG0.43 xGSantos 1.69 xG, Grêmio 0.43 xG
  • Possession55%45%Santos 55%, Grêmio 45%
  • Corners9 corners4 cornersSantos 9 corners, Grêmio 4 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls21 foulsSantos 16 fouls, Grêmio 21 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Santos
0Draws
1Grêmio
Grêmio — Santos · Serie A1–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Santos favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Grêmio in 7 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Santos20 matchesGrêmio19 matches
1.05 goals/matchGoals scored20/19▲ 1.53 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed20/19▲ 1.32 goals/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goals20/19▲ 1.47 xG/match
10.6 shots/matchShots20/19▲ 13.9 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on target20/19▲ 5.21 shots/match
43.9%Possession20/19● 46%
4.4 corners/matchCorners20/19● 5.47 corners/match
16.6 fouls/matchFouls20/1912.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Aug 2023, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSantosGrêmio
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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