PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Grêmio 0–2 Bahia · Serie A

Grêmio

WDWWW
0–2Historical match

Bahia

LDDLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bahia won 0–2.

Shots
1312
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
1.231.73
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bahia beat Grêmio 2–0. Recorded in this match (Grêmio – Bahia): shots 13–12, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 1.23–1.73, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Grêmio's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Grêmio's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.95 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match0.95 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Bahia have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.8%PossessionGrêmio · Bahia● 56%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricGrêmioBahiaBaseline
Possession46.8%56%50.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots12 shotsGrêmio 13 shots, Bahia 12 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsGrêmio 5 shots, Bahia 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.23 xG1.73 xGGrêmio 1.23 xG, Bahia 1.73 xG
  • Possession40%60%Grêmio 40%, Bahia 60%
  • Corners1 corner5 cornersGrêmio 1 corner, Bahia 5 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls10 foulsGrêmio 10 fouls, Bahia 10 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Grêmio
0Draws
1Bahia
Bahia — Grêmio · Serie A1–0
Grêmio — Bahia · Serie A1–0
Bahia — Grêmio · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Grêmio favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Bahia in 4 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Grêmio21 matchesBahia23 matches
0.95 goals/matchGoals scored21/23▲ 1.43 goals/match
1.19 goals/matchGoals allowed21/23▲ 1.09 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals21/23▲ 1.38 xG/match
12.1 shots/matchShots21/2312.6 shots/match
4.48 shots/matchShots on target21/234.48 shots/match
46.8%Possession21/23● 56%
5.1 corners/match ●Corners21/234.39 corners/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls21/2310.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples21 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Aug 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsGrêmioBahia
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024
Head-to-headGrêmio — Bahia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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