PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Red Bull Bragantino 1–2 Fortaleza · Serie A

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fortaleza won 1–2.

Shots
1314
Shots on target
97
Expected goals
2.241.97
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fortaleza beat Red Bull Bragantino 2–1. Recorded in this match (Red Bull Bragantino – Fortaleza): shots 13–14, shots on target 9–7, expected goals 2.24–1.97, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Red Bull Bragantino's recent record differs from the season

weak

Red Bull Bragantino's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.24 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.24 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots14 shotsRed Bull Bragantino 13 shots, Fortaleza 14 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots7 shotsRed Bull Bragantino 9 shots, Fortaleza 7 shots
  • Expected goals2.24 xG1.97 xGRed Bull Bragantino 2.24 xG, Fortaleza 1.97 xG
  • Possession61%39%Red Bull Bragantino 61%, Fortaleza 39%
  • Corners9 corners2 cornersRed Bull Bragantino 9 corners, Fortaleza 2 corners
  • Fouls19 fouls13 foulsRed Bull Bragantino 19 fouls, Fortaleza 13 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Red Bull Bragantino
1Draws
2Fortaleza
Fortaleza — Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A1–1
Red Bull Bragantino — Fortaleza · Serie A1–2
Fortaleza — Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A0–3
Fortaleza — Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A6–0
Red Bull Bragantino — Fortaleza · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Red Bull Bragantino favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 5 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Red Bull Bragantino21 matchesFortaleza22 matches
1.24 goals/matchGoals scored21/22▲ 1.32 goals/match
1.24 goals/matchGoals allowed21/22▲ 0.91 goals/match
1.02 xG/matchExpected goals21/22▲ 1.29 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots21/2212.8 shots/match
4.52 shots/match ▲Shots on target21/223.91 shots/match
48% ●Possession21/2241.7%
5.05 corners/match ●Corners21/224.91 corners/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls21/2213.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples21 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Aug 2024, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRed Bull BragantinoFortaleza
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024
Head-to-headRed Bull Bragantino — Fortaleza
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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