Atlético Nacional
Primera A · 2026Atlético Nacional 3–1 Deportes Tolima · Primera A
This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.
Match at a glance
Atlético Nacional won 3–1.
- Shots
- 23–14
- Shots on target
- 7–3
- Expected goals
- 1.44–0.66
- Possession
- 42%–58%
Full time
What the match recorded
Atlético Nacional beat Deportes Tolima 3–1. Recorded in this match (Atlético Nacional – Deportes Tolima): shots 23–14, shots on target 7–3, expected goals 1.44–0.66, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
Pre-match record
What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.
Deportes Tolima's recent record differs from the season
moderateDeportes Tolima's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1 goal/match | 1.35 goals/match | 1.29 goals/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
Atlético Nacional have a visible home split
moderateAtlético Nacional's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.
Window: home
| Metric | Home only | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 19.9 shots/match | 16.1 shots/match | 12.6 shots/match |
Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.
Recent scheduling adds useful context
weakA compressed recent schedule is recorded for Deportes Tolima.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.
Window: previous 14 days
| Metric | Atlético Nacional | Deportes Tolima | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest days | 7 days | 7 days | — |
| Matches last 14 days | 2 matches | 3 matches | — |
Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.
This match
Match statistics
History
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between these teams.
Last 5 meetings
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Atlético Nacional favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Deportes Tolima in 2 · 3 too close
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Rest before fixture · Both teams: 7 days
Atlético Nacional / Deportes Tolima
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
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