PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Independiente Santa Fe 2–2 Once Caldas · Primera A

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Independiente Santa Fe and Once Caldas drew 2–2.

Shots
922
Shots on target
29
Expected goals
0.51.48
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

Independiente Santa Fe and Once Caldas drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Independiente Santa Fe – Once Caldas): shots 9–22, shots on target 2–9, expected goals 0.5–1.48, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Once Caldas's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Once Caldas's last-five shots average is above their season average.

19.6 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots19.6 shots/match14.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Once Caldas have a visible away split

moderate

Once Caldas's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12 shots/match14.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots22 shotsIndependiente Santa Fe 9 shots, Once Caldas 22 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots9 shotsIndependiente Santa Fe 2 shots, Once Caldas 9 shots
  • Expected goals0.5 xG1.48 xGIndependiente Santa Fe 0.5 xG, Once Caldas 1.48 xG
  • Possession39%61%Independiente Santa Fe 39%, Once Caldas 61%
  • Corners3 corners4 cornersIndependiente Santa Fe 3 corners, Once Caldas 4 corners
  • Fouls4 fouls6 foulsIndependiente Santa Fe 4 fouls, Once Caldas 6 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Independiente Santa Fe
1Draws
0Once Caldas
Once Caldas — Independiente Santa Fe · Primera A1–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Independiente Santa Fe favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Once Caldas in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Independiente Santa Fe25 matchesOnce Caldas23 matches
1.52 goals/matchGoals scored25/23▲ 1.74 goals/match
1.12 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/231.22 goals/match
1.16 xG/match ▲Expected goals22/201.09 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots25/23▲ 14.6 shots/match
4.84 shots/matchShots on target25/23▲ 5.74 shots/match
47%Possession25/23● 53.6%
4.56 corners/matchCorners25/23● 5.39 corners/match
3.63 cards/matchCards8/63 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls25/239.96 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples25 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 3 Aug 2026, 05:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsIndependiente Santa FeOnce Caldas
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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