Fortaleza CEIF
Primera A · 2026Fortaleza CEIF 1–2 Atlético Nacional · Primera A
This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.
Match at a glance
Atlético Nacional won 1–2.
- Shots
- 10–18
- Shots on target
- 5–6
- Expected goals
- 0.51–1.93
- Possession
- 35%–65%
Full time
What the match recorded
Atlético Nacional beat Fortaleza CEIF 2–1. Recorded in this match (Fortaleza CEIF – Atlético Nacional): shots 10–18, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 0.51–1.93, possession 35%–65%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
Pre-match record
What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.
Atlético Nacional's recent record differs from the season
moderateAtlético Nacional's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.2 goals/match | 1.93 goals/match | 1.24 goals/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
Atlético Nacional have a visible away split
moderateAtlético Nacional's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.
Window: away
| Metric | Away only | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 12.9 shots/match | 16.5 shots/match | 12.7 shots/match |
Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.
Atlético Nacional show a distinct attacking-volume record
weakAtlético Nacional's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.
Window: season
| Metric | Fortaleza CEIF | Atlético Nacional | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 12 shots/match | 16.5 shots/match | 12.7 shots/match |
| Shots against | 11.8 shots/match | 12.8 shots/match | 12 shots/match |
Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.
This match
Match statistics
History
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between these teams.
Last 5 meetings
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Fortaleza CEIF favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Nacional in 9 · 1 too close
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
Fortaleza CEIF / Atlético Nacional
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
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