PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Junior Barranquilla 1–1 Once Caldas · Primera A

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Junior Barranquilla and Once Caldas drew 1–1.

Shots
1510
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
1.190.45
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Junior Barranquilla and Once Caldas drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Junior Barranquilla – Once Caldas): shots 15–10, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 1.19–0.45, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Junior Barranquilla's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Junior Barranquilla's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.43 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Once Caldas show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Once Caldas's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.9 shots/match ▲ShotsJunior Barranquilla · Once Caldas14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricJunior BarranquillaOnce CaldasBaseline
Shots12.9 shots/match14.6 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against14.4 shots/match13.9 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

4.89 corners/matchCornersJunior Barranquilla · Once Caldas● 5.19 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricJunior BarranquillaOnce CaldasBaseline
Corners4.89 corners/match5.19 corners/match4.44 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots10 shotsJunior Barranquilla 15 shots, Once Caldas 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsJunior Barranquilla 4 shots, Once Caldas 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.19 xG0.45 xGJunior Barranquilla 1.19 xG, Once Caldas 0.45 xG
  • Possession47%53%Junior Barranquilla 47%, Once Caldas 53%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersJunior Barranquilla 4 corners, Once Caldas 3 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls13 foulsJunior Barranquilla 16 fouls, Once Caldas 13 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Junior Barranquilla
1Draws
1Once Caldas
Junior Barranquilla — Once Caldas · Primera A2–2
Once Caldas — Junior Barranquilla · Primera A0–1
Once Caldas — Junior Barranquilla · Primera A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Junior Barranquilla favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Once Caldas in 6 · 6 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Junior Barranquilla28 matchesOnce Caldas26 matches
1.43 goals/matchGoals scored28/26▲ 1.62 goals/match
1.14 goals/matchGoals allowed28/261.19 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals25/231.07 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots27/26▲ 14.6 shots/match
4.41 shots/matchShots on target27/26▲ 5.54 shots/match
52.2%Possession27/26● 53.4%
4.89 corners/matchCorners27/26● 5.19 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/63 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls27/269.96 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples28 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 24 Aug 2026, 05:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsJunior BarranquillaOnce Caldas
CompetitionPrimera A
Head-to-headJunior Barranquilla — Once Caldas
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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