PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Baltika Kaliningrad 2–2 FK Krasnodar · Premier League

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Baltika Kaliningrad and FK Krasnodar drew 2–2.

Shots
1313
Shots on target
57
Expected goals
1.992.28
Possession
32%68%

Full time

What the match recorded

Baltika Kaliningrad and FK Krasnodar drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Baltika Kaliningrad – FK Krasnodar): shots 13–13, shots on target 5–7, expected goals 1.99–2.28, possession 32%–68%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Baltika Kaliningrad's recent record differs from the season

weak

Baltika Kaliningrad's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goal/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

FK Krasnodar have recorded the higher season possession share.

46%PossessionBaltika Kaliningrad · FK Krasnodar● 56.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBaltika KaliningradFK KrasnodarBaseline
Possession46%56.4%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots13 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 13 shots, FK Krasnodar 13 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots7 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 5 shots, FK Krasnodar 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.99 xG2.28 xGBaltika Kaliningrad 1.99 xG, FK Krasnodar 2.28 xG
  • Possession32%68%Baltika Kaliningrad 32%, FK Krasnodar 68%
  • Corners6 corners2 cornersBaltika Kaliningrad 6 corners, FK Krasnodar 2 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls7 foulsBaltika Kaliningrad 12 fouls, FK Krasnodar 7 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Baltika Kaliningrad favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FK Krasnodar in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Baltika Kaliningrad12 matchesFK Krasnodar12 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored12/12▲ 1.75 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲ 0.58 goals/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲ 1.92 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots12/12▲ 12.3 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲ 4.5 shots/match
46%Possession12/12● 56.4%
4.33 corners/matchCorners12/12● 5.42 corners/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Oct 2023, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBaltika KaliningradFK Krasnodar
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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